Verde Notebook: Why have the goals dried up for Austin FC’s stars?

If Josh Wolff was a betting man, he would have had a rough Sunday picking up the pieces of a bad beat. 

“You’d bet your house, your life on it,” is how Wolff described a chance that fell to Austin FC forward Sebastián Driussi in the 61st minute of a 2-0 loss to the Vancouver Whitecaps on Saturday night.

Driussi missed the shot. He scuffed a half-volley off the unforgiving BC Place turf, sending the ball wide of the left post. Less than a minute later, Lucas Cavallini was celebrating his goal that put the ‘Caps up 2-0 at the other end.

This has been an unsettling trend in recent weeks, as shots that once were flying in for Austin FC over the course of the season are suddenly missing the target. Since the 4-1 throttling of Los Angeles FC on Aug. 26, Driussi and Maxi Urruti have each scored only one goal. 

Moussa Djitté has the other three from a six-game stretch, and all of those came off the bench in a 3-0 win over Real Salt Lake — the only Verde victory in that span.

“On a different night he maybe he scores two or three goals,” Wolff said of Driussi. “I don't expect him to miss that one. He smoked the one in the second half (in the 75th minute) that we've seen go in a few times, and he also had the real good chance in the first half (stoppage time). So on a different night he takes two or three and then we're talking about him scoring four goals in the last five rather than one in five. It’s all in context.”

One thing that’s also worth contextualizing is that advanced metrics have been predicting a slowdown from Driussi to arrive at some point. After the LAFC match, his G-xG number (comparing the goals a player has scored to how many the models would’ve predicted from his shots over the course of a season) had ballooned to 8.20. 

Lee Nguyen holds the MLS record since American Soccer Analysis began tracking the stat, with a G-xG total of 8.56 in 2014. Driussi is now at 7.49 with only one match remaining.

What does it mean? You might say that Driussi is coming back to earth, and not at a great time. 

In addition to the three chances Driussi missed, Urruti also whiffed on a header from 7 yards that arrived via an Emiliano Rigoni cross in the 40th minute.

It goes without saying that one of those guys is going to have bury their chances for Austin FC to make a deep playoff run. And if you’ve been watching Verde this season, you’d bet your house on it.

(Just maybe don’t actually do that.)

Bogus switch

On the bright side, we know that Verde is capable of both great and gritty performances, and they often come in the biggest matches. Austin FC has a tendency to rise to the occasion, whether it’s finding an equalizer to lift the Copa Tejas or blowing out LAFC on national TV.

Which is why it surprised me a little to hear Wolff dismiss a question about that very topic.

“You don’t flip a switch, that’s bogus,” he said. “That’s not the real world of sports. You train and treat everything with real integrity because these opponents are difficult. Situations are always difficult." 

He emphasized, "We’ve scored 64 goals and won 16 games. It’s difficult when you lose. I’d love for us to win every single game, I think everyone would, but we’ve shown the ability to win a lot of games.”

And look, I get the message he’s trying to send. He wants his players to get up for every match the same way they did in those moments, and not rely on emotion to carry them through.

At the same time, his players have admitted that they rode a wave of emotion against LAFC that, when it crashed, resulted in this recent swoon.

If you’ve got belief in this team to go far in the playoffs, and I still do, then it has to be at least in part because it’s a squad full of gamers who need high stakes to play their best. 

Call it whatever you want — the switch had better flip soon.

Gabrielsen is fine

Center back Ruben Gabrielsen was noticeably absent on Saturday night, after we found out Saturday he had been listed questionable with a right hamstring injury on the team's injury report. 

Wolff downplayed the severity in the post-match press conference, and reassured us that Gabrielsen will be ready for the regular-season finale.

“He's good to go,” Wolff said. “He got a full day of training with us on Friday, but to train one day isn't good enough to fly to Vancouver and play on turf. It was a mild hamstring and obviously this time of the year we want to be cautious with it.”