The Supporters' Shield race has changed, but maybe not in the way that you think

Austin FC fans are still buzzing about Friday night’s 4-1 win over LAFC, and they absolutely should be. It was a statement win, a phenomenal win, and it left me with a question I asked on Twitter right at the final whistle. 

This absolutely unscientific poll — of what I have to assume is mostly Verde faithful – essentially manifested Jim Carrey in Dumb and Dumber saying, “So you’re telling me there a chance.” 

Since no one asked it by the end of the post-match press conference with Austin FC head coach Josh Wolff on Friday night, I decided to throw it into the mix, asking him, “You’re only six points out from the Supporters’ Shield — is that gettable? Is that now a goal?” 

He responded, with somewhat predictable one-match-at-a-time messaging, by calling it a “week by week” prospect. 

“We’ve got three points available on Wednesday. You know, this is LAFC’s first time they’ve lost two in a row this year. So we'll try to grab points when we can, but we can't concern ourselves too much with all the other teams. We win, and we'll see what the board looks like come the end of the year.” 

I also asked Brad Stuver about the Shield race and whether the players are thinking about it now that they took care of a critical six-pointer. 

“You know how we are, we are always one game at a time,” he began. “We have breaks in the season, where in these eight games, we have a specific set of goals that we will hit that we think will put us in a really good spot to push for the Shield.

“But for us,” he continued, “it's all about just building momentum, getting as many points as possible and making sure that the results we do get are all on good points. Because any of us that have been in the league for so long know, it's all about building momentum. Teams that go far in the playoffs are the ones that are on the upswing. You don't want to go into those last few games and be fighting … you want to be on that upswing.” 

It’s easy to look at the West race and focus on the Shield coming down to whether Austin can overtake LAFC and get home-field advantage (and the “thanks, I hate this” bye that comes with that – given that both No. 1 seeds last year were bounced in their first playoff matches by the eventual MLS Cup contestants, after having their momentum parked by the rest period built into the playoff schedule). 

But we have to talk about the Union. 

If you weren’t watching MLS action last night, you might have missed Philadelphia beating Colorado 6-0. The Union was up 3-0 by 30 minutes, and since it’s had a run of 6-0 and even 7-0 blowouts of late, I commented in Striker Slack that they were halfway to 6-0 … and then it happened, making it the fourth six (or more)-goal shutout the Union’s mustered this season. 

It started on July 8 with the Union beating D.C. 7-0 at home, and the run of blowouts also included a 6-0 win hosting Houston on July 30, a 6-0 win at D.C. on August 20, and last night’s match, which may have taken the Rapids fully out of playoff contention. 

(No one is mathematically eliminated from the playoffs yet, of course, but consider that the loss dipped Colorado’s goal differential to -9, and if that second tiebreaker comes into play – as total number of wins is the first tiebreaker for teams tied on points – that could be a bridge too far.) 

Jim Curtin’s team has 57 goals on the season, just two behind Austin FC’s sterling total, and it’s only allowed 20 goals, for a goal differential of +37 and a ratio of goals to goals against that’s approaching 3:1. That’s a staggering set of numbers for a well-coached team anchored by one of the best goalkeepers in MLS, especially one that’s moved key outfield players like Jamiro Monteiro, Sergio Santos and Kacper Przybylko from its roster in the last 12 months. 

If you’re looking at the standings the rest of the way, you’ll have to consider the Union’s 54 points alongside LAFC’s 57 and Austin FC’s 51. Once it became evident that LAFC was on a historic run, Austin fans enjoying their own team’s good fortunes have become cognizant that the path to an MLS Cup win would wind through Banc of California Stadium. There’s now an increasing chance that path will also wind through Subaru Park in Chester … and gives a new gravity to each remaining match.