We still want to talk to Josh Wolff.
And yes, sporting director Rodolfo Borrell answered some of the burning questions about the future direction for Austin FC in last Friday's press conference.
But while we wait for more news about this welcome-yet-unwelcome Leagues Cup break, and how what is effectively a second preseason is going, let's take a look at what awaits Verde for the rest of 2023.
As it currently stands, they're 5th in the West, still with the stated goal of a home playoff spot (that's top four) waiting right there, but with a team that's been slightly remade over the most recent transfer window.
Who's in and who's out?
Pretend, for a moment, that you've been away the last few weeks. If you've seen the musical Hamilton (which I just got to see on Broadway, 10/10 would recommend), you know that Act II begins with Thomas Jefferson returning from France to join the Washington administration after missing much of the Revolutionary War, with a fun little song called, "What'd I Miss?"
Now, imagine someone told you Austin FC cut ties with Amro Tarek and picked up veteran center back Matt Hedges, and then got Memo Rodriguez in a trade for an attacking player who only has two goals and two assists on the season, with anywhere from $300,000 to $900,000 in GAM coming as well. That sounds pretty good, right?
Then you learn that player is Diego Fagundez and you commence crying.
("What'd I Miss," indeed.)
On paper, the summer transfer window seems a net positive, though maybe not as roster-remaking as you'd hoped for. But then you learn that Borrell talked about having no real roster flexibility, with either roster spots or with the Garberbucks needed to get more players, and the moves make sense.
But, of course, the big unknown is how the absence of Fagundez — arguably the emotional heart of the club for its whole on-field history — will impact the rest of the team and other players' relationships with Josh Wolff. Wolff did hint at the start of the transfer window that almost no one was untouchable during the transfer window, and Wolff did use the media (picture me raising my hand) back in March to make known his dissatisfaction with Fagundez's play.
The Fagundez trade proved it, though: Pretty much anyone on this team could be traded in the next window. It seems like Sebastián Driussi would be one of those untouchables, but what would happen if a European team offered a hefty transfer fee? Brad Stuver more than doubled his salary from 2022 to 2023, and while he's not what you'd call "overpaid" by MLS standards, what if the front office thought Damian Las was ready for first-time minutes and could get a valuable field player in that $400,000ish window of salary that Stuver's making?
I guess what I'm saying here, post-Fagundez trade, is know that it's possible fans have to weather another unthinkable trade that actually makes sense in the Big Picture. Verde fans lost their collective innocence with the Diego trade. (Cue Wilco's "I Am Trying to Break Your Heart.")
What else do we know about the offseason?
Well, awesomely, as we were prepping this to go out, the MLS Players Association released a list of free agents for the 2024 season.
How might that immediately affect Verde? Seven Austin FC players are on the list:
- Will Bruin (option)
- Ethan Finlay (out of contract)
- Hector Jimenez (option)
- Adam Lundkivst (option)
- Alex Ring (option)
- Memo Rodriguez (option)
- Maxi Urruti (option)
News about whether clubs activate option years are usually one of the first bits of info we'll get after the season ends to give a sense of how the team will be remade. Certainly, of the seven on the list, Ring and Urruti are the highest-paid players, and Ring holds a valuable designated player spot — also being on the salary level that unlocks the option to have three U-22 Initiative players. What Borrell decides regarding Ring could set a number of other choices in motion, including whether Verde rolls with just one of those U-22s.
(Of course, with Žan Kolmanič recovering from a knee injury and Mousse Djitté out on loan, Rodney Redes is the only active U-22 player on the roster.)
How might the new additions change how Verde plays?
We know a few things about how the rest of the season is shaping up. Until Leo Väisänen returns from injury, the team's defensive anchor is most likely a Julio Cascante center back partnership with Hedges, in which the latter will likely be in more of a "stay home" role and Cascante will have the freedom to do a little more of the attacking work that makes him truly valuable to Verde.
As for Memo Rodriguez, he can play as a winger (albeit, one with a propensity to tuck inside) or in one of the dual 8/10 roles that Josh Wolff has employed. He might not be able to kick a ball through a truck — sorry to keep bringing Diego up, y'all — but he's a solid free kick specialist, so he might be stepping into some of those dead-ball situation duties.
When Väisänen comes back, it's possible that Austin could resume the three-back system it's employed during parts of the system, which did seem that it was developed to give Fagundez and Driussi the space to operate like they did during their best moments of '22.
Speaking of Driussi, expect to see him in more of a false nine role in the short term – at least until both Gyasi Zardes and Maxi Urruti return from the injuries that bounced them out of Leagues Cup just slightly ahead of the rest of their teammates. Wolff said after the Juarez game that playing Driussi up top isn't just going with Verde's most viable option given that Strikers 1 and 2 are out and Will Bruin seems like a 20-30 minute player at this stage in his career. Wolff said it's also about freeing him to create. I say, "Why not?" and "Whatever gets him to double-digit goals, for starters."
The rest of the West
Here’s what the rest of the Western Conference looks like heading into the home stretch of the season — the four teams above Verde and the nine teams below them.
St. Louis City SC
41 points, 1.78 points per game
Here’s a stat to keep in mind: City played at a 3 PPG clip for its famous first five games and then they’ve been at a 1.44 PPG pace since then. That’s still quite good — especially given that standouts Eduard Löwen and Joao Klauss have both battled through injuries — but it also feels like either LAFC or RSL (or maybe both) will overtake them before too much longer.
That said, St. Louis is still Red Bulls in all the good ways minus Red Bulls in all the even better ways. Anyone who draws them in the playoffs is going to have a really miserable time trying to get past them — especially if they finish with at least one home playoff match, which I’d absolutely expect.
LAFC
37 points, 1.61 points per game
LAFC’s been through a lot this season, including losing a CCL final that gave them a bit of a hangover through the post-CCL stretch of the season. They’ve certainly got the juice to go deep in Leagues Cup, and maybe even win it, as long as they can get past Monterrey in a quarterfinal match that feels like a final.
In fact, with talented new players on board to give Steve Cherundolo arguably even more ridiculous depth than he started the season with, the only thing that might derail them is losing a heartbreaking Leagues Cup final. (But CCL really was the goal for LAFC this season. No one really knows what Leagues Cup is or what it’s going to mean for the team who wins it, other than a CCL spot, which we're reasonably sure LAFC would get anyway,)
Real Salt Lake
37 points, 1.54 points per game
RSL was already young, scrappy and hungry heading into the season, but now with the acquisition of Chicho Arango, it appears RSL is not throwing away its shot in 2023. (Reminder: I just saw Hamilton.) While they got worked by Monterrey in Leagues Cup, they bounced the current CCL champs from the same tournament’s knockout rounds, and then got thumped by LAFC on Tuesday to end their run. They might not be top-tier quite yet based on that, but they're approaching it.
Seattle Sounders FC
36 points, 1.5 points per game
It’s weird times for the Sounders at this stage of the season, with a 2-3-4 record in their last nine games and getting trounced in Leagues Cup by RSL and Monterrey by a combined 7-2 margin.
The Sounders of yore have had the formula down, though: First, get into the playoffs. Then, once you’re in, cook. As long as they have Brian Schmetzer coaching them and the roster they’ve got, they’re going to be a factor in the playoff — but maybe not as a top-four team. (Hold that thought.)
San Jose Earthquakes
32 points, 1.39 points per game
Fifth-place Austin and 6th-place San Jose are on the same number of points and PPG — Austin’s got a goal differential of 0 vs. San Jose’s -1, currently making the difference in the standings. The Quakes are getting an MVP-caliber season from Cristian Espinoza (though clearly LAFC’s Denis Bouanga is winning that), and there’s a case to be made for Luchi Gonzalez as a coach of the year candidate (though clearly FC Cincinnati’s Pat Noonan is winning that).
San Jose’s making the playoffs. Top four’s more of a question but it’s certainly not out of the question. Oh, also, San Jose’s played 12 home matches this season and they’ve only lost one of them. (Hold that thought.)
Vancouver Whitecaps FC
31 points, 1.41 points per game
Vancouver actually has a slightly higher PPG than either of the two teams above them. But they also traded away Julian Gressel as more of a “right thing to do for the player” move than a “helpful thing to do for the team” move. Vancouver has a “could finish 4th, could finish 10th” feel about them. In other words: They’re not much different from the Vanni Sartini teams we’ve seen the last two years.
FC Dallas
30 points, 1.3 points per game
It’s weird seeing them here, but then again, after totally biffing the chance to end the Messi narrative in Leagues Cup, it’s not that weird at all. They’ve had to weather a stretch without Jesus Ferreira thanks to Gold Cup, but now he's back, and Leagues Cup showed they've developed other scoring talent. They just have to work on finishing out matches.
Houston Dynamo FC
29 points, 1.26 points per game
If the season were to end now, it’d be a Texas Derby in the 8/9 spot for the right to go to St. Louis. Hard to say where it’s going to turn for the Dynamo, though given that it’s summer and they had an awful bounce out of Leagues Cup, that could mean a downturn is coming. They’ve also got one of the more dramatic home/away splits in the league: They’re 7-2-2 in what they’ve christened “Hell in the Shell” and they’re 1-8-3 away.
Minnesota United FC
28 points, 1.27 points per game
Sure, you know about Emanuel Reynoso and Teemu Pukki and Dayne St. Clair, but Bongi Hlongwane might ultimately be the player who determines if the Loons squeak over the line at the end. They still have 12 games to play and seven are home. But they are 2-2-6 at home this season.
Sporting Kansas City
26 points, 1.04 points per game
They’ve only got nine games left to play in the season and the second-worst PPG in the conference. They’re certainly better than they were in the first part of the season, but they’re still not great, and they’ve got the look of a 10th or 11th-place team when this is all done.
(Prediction: Peter Vermes still keeps his job.)
Portland Timbers
26 points, 1.03 points per game
With 11 games to go and Evander being really good, the Timbers could make a move. But, like SKC, it seems like there’s too much ground to make up on too many teams in front of them. Weirder things have happened in MLS, though. (Like two years ago, when the Timbers entered the playoffs as a No. 4 seed and hosted against another No. 4. seed.
LA Galaxy
22 points, 1 point per game
The Galaxy get 12 matches to turn things around with a lineup impressively revamped in a summer transfer window where they could only acquire players via trade or free agent. (In case you didn’t get this in our previous Fagundez coverage, the Galaxy’s new Master of Trades, Will Kuntz, is really good at trades.)
But this is a lot of ground to make up, and a lot of it hinges on a newly-acquired 34-year-old center back partnering with a 20-year-old one, and a U-22 striker who doesn’t seem to score a whole lot when he starts. (Which is, thanks to the Chicharito injury, quite a bit.)
Colorado Rapids
19 points, 0.83 points per game
This is the only team in the West I can say, right now, with certainty, doesn’t make the playoffs.
(Prediction: Robin Fraser doesn’t keep his job, which is a shame, but then he probably finds a new MLS team to land with in 2024.)
The games that are left
Here’s something weird: Austin’s only got five home games remaining the rest of the season, and only one of them is on a Saturday night. Also, that match has got the potential to be the bloodbathiest of all the home matches. (Cue Chic’s “Good Times.”)
Here are the remaining 11 matches on the schedule.
@ St. Louis, Sunday, Aug. 20
It’s the long-awaited Jared Stroud revenge game (or, at least, the chance for it). Like Austin, St. Louis also got knocked out of Leagues Cup in the group stages, though they did draw the Crew and Club América in their group. (Harder than Austin’s draw? Who can say?)
This isn’t the easiest way to just slide back into MLS play.
@ FC Dallas, Saturday, Aug. 26
After playing away against the West leaders, Austin goes to a Dallas team below them in the table, with longtime Dallas captain Matt Hedges in Verde, to play for Copa Tejas. Anyone else have a bad feeling about this, or is it just me?
vs. Seattle, Wednesday, Aug. 30
Austin gets its first home match in 32 days against Seattle. Earlier this season — though it now feels like several seasons ago — Verde beat the Sounders for the first time in their history. Currently, the teams are just four points apart, and Seattle occupies the spot just above Austin in the table. The one that brings a home playoff spot today. It's essentially a home playoff place six-pointer.
(Were the season to have ended with the current table, it’d be Austin and Seattle in a 4/5 playoff matchup. Hat tip to Seth Rau for reminding us that the first round of the playoffs is a best-of-three matchup with each team in the top eight of each conference guaranteed a home game.)
@ New England, Saturday, Sept. 2
Things are real weird in New England right now. Bruce Arena’s on administrative leave right now (and under investigation by the league for comments he reportedly made), and goalkeeper Djordje Petrovic skipped out on a Leagues Cup match, angered that he wasn’t moved over the season even though teams were interested in him.
Despite the turmoil, this has been one of the East’s best teams this year, and it’s a long road trip on short rest.
vs. Portland, Sunday, Sept. 17
Historically, Austin’s liked playing Portland at home, and this might be the most favorable of the home matches for Verde the rest of the way.
Also, though, I have an idea of what Evander might be able to do to Austin’s defense on an off-day. Memo to Josh Wolff: Someone’s gonna want to mark Evander.
@ NY Red Bulls, Wednesday, Sept. 20
Last year’s home game against the Red Bulls was, in a word, weird, and in another word, disappointing. The Red Bulls have been quite inconsistent this year, but they’re also a coach who’s been better than the one with whom they started the season. And they’re playing at home, though it’s hard to get fans to Harrison.
vs. LA Galaxy, Sunday, Sept. 24
It’s the Diego Fagundez homecoming match. And it could be pivotal in the West race.
@ Colorado, Saturday, Sept. 30
It hasn’t been the best year for the Rapids. It’s also another game to remind fans of Fagundez, what with the Denverde first goal in club history and all. But really, if you miss Diego, isn’t every game going to remind you of him?
vs. D.C. United, Wednesday, Oct. 4
D.C. is ninth in the East right now. They might need this match more than Austin at this juncture. Also, they blew a 2-0 80th-minute lead to Verde last year. Maybe they won’t remember?
vs. LAFC, Saturday, Oct. 7
It’s the home finale. Really? This has to be the home finale?
@ San Jose, Saturday, Oct. 21
This is a Decision Day matchup that will certainly have an impact on the playoff places. Fun fact: Austin’s never beaten San Jose, even when San Jose was bad. San Jose is now good.
Projected outlook
The good news, based on what I see here, is that Austin still makes the playoffs — I think there’s too much ground for even teams like Portland and the Galaxy to make up to break into the top nine. Austin’s got winnable games at the right part of the season (hosting Galaxy, at Rapids, hosting D.C.) to clinch a playoff spot. But, also, I see could see a 3-4-4 finish down the stretch to get Verde to 45 points (with losses to St. Louis, FC Dallas, LAFC and the Quakes offsetting results in the other seven matches), which feels more like the 6th through 8th place realm.
It’s even possible that the playoffs start the way that this final phase of the regular season starts — with Austin heading on a road trip to St. Louis and feelings of vague uncertainty permeating the fan base.