Adios, Chicharito and Vela?: Why 2023 could be the final season for this pair of Mexican stars in L.A.

Los Angeles is home to the two best Mexican players of this generation. The LA Galaxy’s Javier “Chicharito” Hernández is Mexico's all-time top goal scorer and LAFC’s Carlos Vela is one of the most talented Mexican players of his generation, evident when he was leading Mexico to win the FIFA U-17 World Championship with a five-goal Golden Boot performance in the 2005 tournament. 

Both players came through Chivas de Guadalajara’s academy but took different career paths. Vela joined Arsenal FC in 2006 with various loans to other clubs, spending the majority of his career with Real Sociedad before joining LAFC in 2018. Chicharito made a name for himself in Liga MX to earn a transfer to Manchester United. He would go on to play for Real Madrid, Bayer Leverkusen, West Ham and Sevilla before joining the LA Galaxy in 2020.

With Chicharito joining the LA Galaxy, it opened a new chapter in the El Trafico Rivalry. Following Zlatan Ibrahimović's departure, Chicharito now became the face of the Galaxy when taking on Vela’s LAFC. It took 810 days since Chicharito signed for LA to see the two Mexican stars play against each other in the 2022 season as injuries held off the matchup between the pair in MLS.

Now in 2023, the two players are in the final year of their contracts and in different circumstances. LAFC is coming off winning MLS Cup last season and near the top of the Western Conference standings, while the LA Galaxy is near the bottom of the league standings. While both teams are in separate directions, they’ll both have to make a major decision about their Mexican stars by the year's end. 

Legacies in Los Angeles

Alex Ruiz on Chicharito

There is no doubt Chicharito improved and put everything out on the pitch for the LA Galaxy. A disappointing first season with Galaxy with just two goals in the Covid-19-affected MLS season in 2020. He dealt with injury and played in just 12 games that season. It was a rough year for the Mexican as he was dealing with a divorce and the death of his grandfather, Chivas legend Tomás Balcázar. It caused more questions to be asked about whether he could lead the Galaxy back into the conversation of the best teams in MLS.

It didn’t take long for Chicharito to bounce back and show what he was capable of with 17 goals in 2021. Greg Vanney was named the club's head coach that season and was able to rekindle Chicharito’s goalscoring form. Injuries caused him to miss a key portion of that season and LA missed the playoffs on the final matchday.

He then scored 18 goals in the 2022 season, leading LA to the 2022 MLS Cup Playoffs with 11 goals in the last 12 games of the regular season. The Mexican earned All-Star honors and closed any notions of being a “one-season wonder” in 2021. 

2023 felt destined to be a rough year for Chicharito, as he played in just one preseason game due to injury. Just minutes into a preseason match at the  Coachella tournament, he was forced to leave the game due to hamstring discomfort and missed the team's first five games of the regular season.

He finished the season with one goal and one assist in 688 minutes of MLS play. His last moment in MLS was a red card in the 84th minute against Charlotte FC. He tore the ACL in his right knee after chasing after a pass in the Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup on June 7th. It’s unfortunate that he couldn’t score in the MLS Cup Playoffs and couldn’t lead LA to the Western Conference finals in what was most probably his last opportunity to do so. 

When people talk about Chicharito years down the line, he’ll be remembered as a player who worked hard to bounce back following a tough 2020. He tallied 82 career games across all competitions for the Galaxy, tallying 39 goals and six assists – placing him 10th on the club’s list of all-time goal scorers. When his name was called during the announcement of the starting XI, he won the loudest response from the crowd. He drew people to Dignity Health Sports Park as one of the region's greatest soccer players.

Justin Ruderman on Vela

Over the past six years, Vela’s name has become synonymous with LAFC. He was the club’s first-ever signing in 2017 and became the face of the franchise from day one. Vela has lived up to the pressure that creates. 

In the club’s inaugural 2018 season, Vela produced 14 goals and 13 assists, leading LAFC to the best expansion season in league history (57 points). Immediately, the Black and Gold were cast into the upper echelon of MLS, and expectations rose from there. Hosting a home playoff game was an incredible accomplishment in the club’s first season — but after a disappointing first-round exit to Real Salt Lake, LAFC was even more determined to win titles.

In 2019, Vela provided. At age 30, he produced the best individual season in MLS history by racking up 34 goals and 15 assists, good enough for most goals and most goal contributions in a single MLS season. Unsurprisingly, Vela won the 2019 MLS MVP award and LAFC picked up the first piece of silverware in club history by lifting the Supporters’ Shield. 

Though the team came up short of their ultimate goal of winning the MLS Cup, losing the Western Conference final at home to Seattle Sounders, Vela led LAFC in taking another major step forward as an organization. Despite being injured for most of the 2020 season, Vela was able to contribute in Concacaf Champions League competition — a tournament they qualified for by virtue of the '19 Shield fun. Vela scored five goals in four matches to drag his team to the COVID-adjusted CCL final, losing to Tigres but becoming just the third American team to reach a CCL final.

Vela’s incredible CCL numbers indicate his proclivity to perform at his best in the biggest moments. Just ask Chicharito and the Galaxy; Vela has scored 10 goals and three assists against the rival club since 2018, the most of any player in El Trafico games. His 10 goals against the Galaxy are tied for the fifth-most against the MLS originals in the league's entire history, despite playing in only 10 matches against his LA rivals. 

Before becoming the first MLS team to reach two CCL finals with its 2023 campaign, one in which Vela recorded five more goal contributions – LAFC aimed to win MLS Cup. Inaugural coach Bob Bradley was unable to accomplish that goal, but Steve Cherundolo, appointed to succeed Bradley in 2022 did it in just his first season as a first-team manager. 

Vela answered the bell for his coach, providing double-digit goal and assist returns for the first time since 2019 with 12 goals and 11 assists. LAFC claimed the club’s second Supporters’ Shield title. In the playoffs, Vela provided another three assists on the Black and Gold’s journey to their first MLS Cup trophy. After five long years, Vela had accomplished what he came to Los Angeles to do. An icon, a talisman, or a club legend — whatever you call him, Vela will live forever in LAFC lore.

What’s changed? 

Alex Ruiz on Chicharito

Injuries have taken a major toll on Chicharito during his time with the LA Galaxy. He played just 12 MLS games in 2020 and played 21 in 2021. During the ‘21 season, his absence led to the LA Galaxy slipping in the standings and the team missed out on the playoffs on the final matchday. He was the Galaxy offense that season and nobody on the roster could pick up his level of goal production.

The introduction of Riqui Puig last season really helped Chicharito get scoring opportunities and the two developed a great chemistry together. During the offseason, the two were spotted courtside at Laker games together.

Heading into 2023, the two were expected to keep that form but neither has consistently created goal contributions. Chicharito, in nine games played this season, has had a visible regression and a noticeable decline in technical ability.

He became a liability in the final third as he tended to lose the ball in possession, thus ending any attacking momentum the team had. He still occupied defenders and made dangerous runs off-the-ball but his finishing was subpar. He finished the seasonwith a G-xG of -3, meaning he should’ve scored four goals instead of the single goal he achieved, according to xG models.

For a player that’s made a living for being lethal in front of the net, this trend was extremely worrying. The eye test backed it up as well; take a look at this chance versus LAFC that many expected Chicharito to finish. 

Justin Ruderman on Vela

At 34 years old, Vela’s influence on the game has noticeably faded. Excluding penalties, Vela scored 25 goals in 2019. In 2022, that dropped to eight and he is on pace for just five in 2023. He’s even missed two of five penalties in the league this season, as many as he missed in 2019 from 11 penalties taken. Vela’s goal-scoring prowess has all but disappeared.

Gabonese forward Dénis Bouanga has picked up the slack since joining LAFC late in 2022; he's currently second in the MLS Golden Boot race behind Nashville’s reigning winner Hany Mukhtar. In turn, questions are raised about the role Vela plays. Ideally, another goalscorer would allow Vela to focus on assists as Chicho Arango did before Bouanga arrived. 

However, Vela's goal creation hasn’t been particularly impressive either. Despite being fit all season, Vela might be on track to hit double-digit assists with only five thus far. His key passing is dwindling as well — from 83 key passes in 2019 to 68 in 2022, Vela is now on track for only 51 this season. It is not a result of his passing percentage, which remains steady between 79-81% over the past four seasons, but simply a lack of quantity when it comes to Vela’s final third production. There simply isn’t enough.

The main factor here is surely age. Potentially the biggest evidence for that would be Vela’s inability to go the distance in the biggest LAFC matches. It began in the playoffs last season when Cherundolo decided to substitute Vela in the 78th minute with the score still 1-1 in a playoff edition of El Trafico. Within two minutes, Bouanga had put LAFC up 2-1 before Arango won the game 3-2 in stoppage time for LAFC. The moment signaled a potential shift from the old guard to the new. In the chaotic extra time of the 2023 MLS Cup final, Vela was again sitting on the bench watching while Gareth Bale rescued his team in the final seconds.

Fitness is a difficult thing to measure without the advanced stats only available to club statisticians but there is one obvious place where the numbers back up the eye test — duel percentage. Back in 2019, Vela won 55.8% of his individual duels, fading year by year until he reached 42.6% in 2022. That is to be expected on the wrong side of 30. This season, however, there has been a drastic dropoff to a mere 31.6% of duels won. He used to get the better of his opponents in individual battles. Now, more often than not, they get the better of him.

Is there still a future?

Alex Ruiz on Chicharito

It’s always hard for athletes to recover from an ACL tear; there is always a major hit to their athleticism and the recovery process is grueling. The timing of the injury isn’t ideal as Chicharito is currently in the final year of his contract. 

It’s difficult to envision the Galaxy wanting to reup with the 36-year-old striker, especially if he’s going to demand designated player money. LA has the opportunity to have two DP spots open this offseason to build around Puig. Hernández is the third highest-paid player in the league, earning around $7.4 million per the 2023 edition of the MLSPA Salary Guide. 

Chicharito’s playstyle is built around movement and involvement in possession build-up play.An ACL injury at his age will take a toll on his speed and athleticism when looking to expose backlines. He’s a fox in the box by making sharp cuts and continuously moving to disorganize the center backs. That’s what’s made him an elite poacher in front of goal.

With both these factors, it’s likely that the Galaxy would be tempted to move on and get a new DP for the 2024 season. He’s been the face of the franchise since the decade began and put himself among the best goal-scorers in the Galaxy’s history. While Chicharito has shown his value in the last couple of seasons, moving on is going to be inevitable. 

Justin Ruderman on Vela

The future will be up to Vela and LAFC general manager John Thorrington. LAFC would surely be happy to have Vela back, with the caveat of Vela taking a significant pay cut. That is where the negotiation will have to take place. Notably, Vela has shown a willingness to take a pay cut to stay at the club in the past.

Midway through last season, Vela signed a 1.5-year contract extension through the end of the 2023 season, meaning Vela is currently set to become a free agent on January 1, 2024. Contrasted to his previous contract, which brought a guaranteed compensation of $6.3m in 2021, Vela earned just over $4 million on his new contract in 2022, falling again to about $3.3 million in 2023. 

The difference in contract negotiations this year is expected to involve the designated player tag. Due to Vela's dropoff in impact, it would be difficult to see LAFC offer Vela another DP contract should his form not drastically improve. LAFC would, of course, be willing to give Vela a contract. However, the maximum budget charge for next season will be only $683,750, a number Vela would likely decline. Without offering a DP contract, LAFC would be able to add a maximum of $1 million (up to $1,683,750) should they be willing to use targeted allocation money (TAM) to buy down the contract. Whether Vela would accept $1,683,750 is another debate in itself.

The upshot is, MLS roster rules may be very complicated, but as in every negotiation, it will come down to whether LAFC is willing to pay Vela a salary he is willing to play for. As he gets set to turn 35, we may have finally reached the point where the two sides won’t be able to agree. Perhaps Vela wants one last adventure elsewhere, or more likely, he sees it as the perfect time to retire as an LAFC legend. Should that happen, it wouldn’t take long for his statue to be erected outside of BMO Stadium.