Luiz Araujo's time with Atlanta United has ended. What did we learn?

Luiz Araujo’s time with Atlanta United has come to an end. 

Two years, a $9.5 million transfer fee, 54 starts, 11 goals and 12 assists later, there’s really only one way to look at his tenure in MLS: A bust. Maybe the bust. His numbers don’t quite live up to the production that many of the other most expensive transfers in MLS history had. There are really good arguments to make here for Rodolfo Pizarro and Brian Fernandez, but, no matter what, Araujo will forever occupy a unique space in Atlanta United and MLS lore. 

No single player has ever failed to capitalize on their readily apparent potential like Araujo. 

I don’t think I’m overstating that. The pace, the on-ball ability, the hitting the absolute hell out of the ball, all of it combined to present a player that so clearly had a skillset designed to put up comical numbers in MLS. No player has ever drawn as many quiet “holy shits” from Atlanta media members during open training sessions. He routinely performed remarkable acts of soccering in practice. In the few times it manifested on the field, we all got to point and say, “SEE! WE WEREN’T MAKING IT UP!” like Bigfoot hunters finding an oversized footprint deep in the woods. 

It’s not even like he lacked effort. He put in a shift when asked to press. He didn’t need to do something vague like “try harder.”

Instead, he needed to do something vague like “try smarter.” This may be the last time I ever say this, but it’s worth repeating one more time—Araujo lacked a fundamental understanding of why good things happen in soccer games. I once got a message from a former player saying Araujo had the worst off-ball movement of any starting-caliber player in MLS. Somehow, in Araujo’s time in Atlanta, that never changed. He stayed static, almost subconsciously refusing to do the things that would have turned him into an elite player. In an alternate timeline, he figured those things out and turned into a version of LAFC’s Denis Bouanga.  I mean, just imagine Araujo making this kind of run…

Or this one …

Or …

Or …

Ah, wait, oops, that’s Tyler Wolff. My bad. Although, I guess on a related note, I should mention Wolff has three goals on the year in 151 minutes. Araujo had three goals this season in 1275 minutes. 

Basically, Araujo did not and would not put himself into quality positions to score. Plain and simple. And he never has. The average xG per shot in MLS is around 0.10. Essentially, the average shot has a 10% chance to go in. Araujo’s average xG per shot in Atlanta went from 0.09 in his half-season in 2021 to 0.08 in 2022 to 0.06 in 2023. Over the course of his career, he’s only averaged 0.10 xG per shot once. That same 2017 season with Lille also happens to be the only time he’s scored more than four goals in his career. He scored five. 

One of my favorite endings to any piece of media ever is in the totally fine but not great film, “Burn After Reading." J.K. Simmons, a CIA big wig, is being briefed on the extremely messy happenings from the previous 90 minutes of plot that had no real impact on anything around them. The movie closes with this exchange.

J.K. Simmons : What did we learn, Palmer?

CIA Officer: I don't know, sir.

J.K. Simmons: I don't f****n' know either. I guess we learned not to do it again.

From Atlanta’s perspective, that’s largely how I feel about the Araujo signing. It’s hard to fault the club for seeing exactly what we saw at his best moments and thinking, “Yeah, that will absolutely work in MLS.” Sometimes, players just don’t adapt the way you hope. Sometimes you get an Araujo. Sometimes you get a Bouanga. If the club signs a player with a similar skillset and ability level again, it would be hard to fault them for it. 

However, I don’t think it was all entirely meaningless. There are two lessons in particular that I think we can take from Araujo.

Off-ball ability is critical

The biggest thing you can fault Atlanta United’s scouting for is not recognizing Araujo’s deficiencies off the ball. Even just looking at his shot selection numbers from Lille, you can see his struggles to get into quality positions. However, it’s not unfair to see those numbers in Ligue 1 and think that a player entering his prime and coming into a slightly less difficult league could take a leap forward.

But this isn’t the first time Atlanta has overvalued on-ball ability. 

Tito Villalba got shipped off in part for salary reasons and in part because Frank de Boer didn’t think his style of play fit into his possession-based system. Villalba’s 13 goals and 11 assists in 2017 alone outpace Araujo’s entire time in Atlanta.

Marcelino Moreno and Ezequiel Barco all came in and dribbled their hearts out but rarely felt like cohesive parts of the machine. Pity Martinez did the same to some extent. And, of course, there’s … well … [looks around, lowers voice] ... Jurgen Damm. Just a parade of dribbly bois liable to beat someone off the dribble and perhaps not much else. 

That’s not to say the ability to beat a player one-v-one is a detriment. It’s just to say that it can’t be the only thing. Thiago Almada dribbles plenty but he also gets into great positions and uses the space he creates off the dribble effectively. 

However, an affinity for players who only contribute with the ball at their feet feels like the most noticeable flaw in Atlanta United’s scouting process since its inception. And it’s fair to ask if there needs to be a major shift going forward in how they assess highly-priced players. 

Or, maybe the better question is if there already has been. Giorgos Giakoumakis and Derrick Etienne Jr., Atlanta’s two biggest signings of the offseason, were both notable for their off-ball movement. It will be extremely interesting to see how they continue to approach major attacking signings. It’s possible Araujo sparked a change on some level.

Align the spine first

Araujo also might mark the last time we see major money spent on a winger. At least for a while. It feels instructive to keep coming back to what Garth Lagerwey told 92.9 The Game when the club announced Araujo’s transfer.

“You know, one of the things that I think you guys have heard me say I really want to spend our money down the spine of the team," Lagerwey said. "Which is to say center forward, center midfielder, defensive midfielder, center back, goalkeeper. And that was a big expenditure, maybe higher than I'd seen before for a winger, you know, for a wide player. And obviously, if everything had gone perfectly, then, you know, you would have left it as is, you know, not kicked over the sandcastle just for the point of being destructive."

It’s not the worst thing in the world to try and hit big on a winger. There’s nothing inherently wrong with it. But Lagerwey brings up a good point which is that a winger won’t have a major impact if the rest of the team’s spine is misaligned. To some extent, it felt like Atlanta skipped a critical step in the process to bring in Araujo. It’s unlikely we’ll see Atlanta spend big again on a wide player unless there’s an open spot and a completely solidified spine. That takes a handful of shrewd signings and player development. 

To be fair, though, Atlanta isn’t that far away from that. Just imagine if Matheus Rossetto lived up to his $700k a year salary and Thiago Almada and Miles Robinson were long-term pieces. It’s doable. However, Atlanta is still in need of some chiropractic work. With Araujo officially gone, it’s time to start reshaping the foundation of the team.