LAFC and the Philadelphia Union have met six times in the five years since LAFC’s entrance into MLS in 2018. The Union haven't won any of them.
They’ve split four of them, with the other two going the way of the Black and Gold – though last season’s MLS Cup was technically dead even at the end of regulation. Thanks to Kellyn Acosta’s stoppage-time equalizer last week, in the first of two Concacaf Champions League semifinal legs, LAFC have the edge on away goals, meaning Philadelphia will likely need that first-ever victory if it hopes to represent MLS in CCL.
If LAFC wins, it’s in the final. If the Union win, they’re through. A scoreless draw sends the Black and Gold, through while a stalemate of at least two goals each advances Philadelphia. And a 1-1 tie would give us extra soccer. That’s where we stand, 90 minutes from the CCL, with a Liga MX in Tigres or Leon guaranteed on the other side.
More of the same
While we have established it’s not a completely blank slate – the Union is currently behind on away goals – 1-1 is about the best consolation prize you could ask for. These teams have never played a scoreless draw, and should Tuesday night be no different, it’s play to win at BMO Stadium.
The Union play a consistent style, one Cherundolo has praised repeatedly in the days surrounding this semifinal tie. It's direct and looking to generate opportunities off of set pieces, a style that’s proven difficult for defenses to handle at times.
“I think it’ll look similar,” Cherundolo said, “their performance and their approach to the game. They came and played an excellent first half and gave us some problems, and that’s the Philly I expect tomorrow night.”
Cherundolo said that every player in their squad knows their role, knows what to do in every moment, and that’s how Philadelphia has built out its roster. It’s what has and continues to make them a dangerous side both on a night-to-night basis and in big games like Tuesday night’s second leg.
At the opening whistle, the Union need just a single goal, but it truly is the more the merrier for Philadelphia. As the scoreline climbs, their away goal tally climbs with it, sending the Union on to the final in the event this matchup ends in another patented draw.
That direct attack will be on full display in this second leg. “They don’t go left or right. They go straight ahead,” Cherundolo said. For a side chasing at least one goal, there’s no reason to expect them to deviate now.
On the other side, the only draw that advances LAFC on to the final is the present one – 1-1 on aggregate. One goal doesn’t really alter the math for either side, but if Philadelphia gets its breakthrough, the hosts are going to need more than one.
LAFC had dominated away from home in the first two rounds, picking up 3-0 victories in both opening legs. Even with the step up in competition, Cherundolo said it didn’t change how his team was approaching last week’s match in Philadelphia. They wanted to control the game, and they wanted to win.
Even with the slight edge on away goals heading into leg two, that won’t change how LAFC want to take the game to the Union. With so much uncertainty and so little separating these teams, it’s still play to win for the Black and Gold.
“For us, it doesn’t change,” Cherundolo said. “We’ll have the same mentality, the same game plan.”
Who do we see?
The 2023 season is still young, but it seemed as though Cherundolo had settled on a “go-to” starting lineup.
With injuries and international absences early on, it was tough to read just how this LAFC side would be set up when they needed a result. But an El Trafico on more than four days of rest – only amplified by a second formality against Vancouver – and last week’s first leg gave us a pair of glimpses.
In both cases, we got the same 11: John McCarthy, Ryan Hollingshead, Jesús Murillo, Aaron Long, Diego Palacios, Illie Sánchez, Kellyn Acosta, José Cifuentes, Carlos Vela, Kwadwo Opoku, Denis Bouanga.
On April 16 in Carson, they proved themselves – albeit not super convincingly – to be the better side in the 3-2 win over the Galaxy. All three of those goals were scored before Cherundolo made his first change of the afternoon.
That starting lineup played 71 minutes and won that stretch 3-1, the only blemish being a long-range missile from Tyler Boyd that had an xG of 0.02. It took what might be the Galaxy’s goal of the season to crack them, and it was all one-way traffic the other direction.
It was a different story on Tuesday night in Philadelphia for that same eleven. There weren’t as many chances created, even fewer that presented a serious level of danger, and less opportunities from set pieces – an essential part of the threat they presented in last year’s MLS Cup.
While the Union are an undoubtedly more difficult side to disorganize than the Galaxy, but the changes came much quicker in that opening leg. Mateusz Bogusz relieved Opoku coming out of the half, and Stipe Buik got Vela roughly 20 minutes later.
Cherundolo used his last sub before the 80th minute to insert Tim Tillman for Cifuentes, and that’s when the game really began. Acosta’s questionable handball delivered Philadelphia the lead in the 86th only for his redemption to knot it back up five minutes later.
“The ability to change the momentum of games in the second half with our substitutions,” Chreundolo said after Tuesday’s first leg on what made the difference. “I think that is what enabled us to find a way to get a goal tonight.”
The substitutes had a profound impact on the outcome of Tuesday’s first leg, and if it wasn’t for a coin flip of a VAR decision, they would have won their minutes on the night.
Even if the starting lineup remains the same, as Cherundolo said Monday it likely would, that doesn’t mean they’re the eleven that determine the outcome. “Who do we see?” is as much about the first group as it is the most important group, and last week’s result suggests it might involve a sprinkling of second-half reinforcements.
Bet on brilliance
It doesn’t get any more even than these two teams.
Possession was an even 50/50 split in the first leg, with each side attempting nine shots and committing 11 fouls. Up and down the statsheet, regardless of how much meaning you wish to grant them, there was almost nothing separating the two sides on every line.
They’ve played each other six times, and after 90 minutes in five of them, the scoreline was even. A season’s worth of matches wasn’t even enough to separate them on total points last year.
“As always it’s going to be a very tight match against them,” Cherundolo said. “Neither club is willing to give an inch, and I think it’s a fantastic matchup – one we’re looking forward to.”
At some point, however, something has to give. It could be any of the xG trends like Bouanga’s overperformance or his supporting cast and the Union’s relative underperformance this season.
But it usually takes a significant sample size for those expected statistics to settle around the mean, to line up with their top lying counterparts. 90 minutes between two sides that have routinely delivered the unpredictable will almost certainly not be decided by a statistical reckoning.
These games are won by moments and the individuals who deliver them. LAFC got a pair of them in last year’s MLS Cup Playoffs – Gareth Bale’s last-ditch equalizer in the final and Bouanga’s near-perfect volley to set up Cristian Arango’s rebound winner against the Galaxy.
Bouanga already has a pair of goal-contribution hat tricks in CCL play to go along with a handful of match-winning and equalizing goals in league contests. Carlos Vela sealed their place in the quarterfinals with a late goal vs. Alajuelense. Even Jose Cifuentes, who netted his fair share of big goals a season ago, netted a long-range strike in the opening leg of the quarterfinals.
If you’re looking for someone to deliver Tuesday’s moment and tip the scales of this semifinal tie, it’s hard to look past the names at the top of that Black and Gold team sheet.
