It’s fitting. The two best teams in the United States playing for the right to compete for the title of best team in North America.
Their duel in the 2022 MLS Cup deserved another 90 minutes, and after 172 long days, the football gods have blessed us with 180 more. For the second consecutive season, a MLS team will play for the Concacaf Champions League crown, and these next three hours — starting with Wednesday's match at the Union's Subaru Park home, at 6 p.m. PT — will provide the league its representative.
The rematch
Nov. 5, 2022. Gareth Bale scores what is surely the greatest cup-winning goal of his professional career, rescuing LAFC’s dream season in the eighth minute of the second extra time period.
All jokes aside, we’re just under five months removed from arguably the greatest match in MLS history. In two meetings in 2022, Philadelphia and LAFC played 210 minutes of live soccer to a dead heat. Even a 34-match regular season wasn’t enough as both squads finished on 67 points.
LAFC took the season-long race on a win-total tiebreaker – 21 to the Union’s 19 – and ultimately claimed the head-to-head prize after four rounds of penalty kicks. Two extraneous wins and some spot kicks: that’s all that separated these two sides a season ago, and they take center stage once again on Wednesday night.
Under the current format, the two MLS finalists from the season prior have never met in the following year’s CCL. During its run in 2020, LAFC didn’t face a single MLS side en route to its loss in the final to Tigres.
LAFC has, however, already faced both teams it faced in the two preceding rounds of last year’s postseason. Both contests – at home with Austin and at the Galaxy – were almost exact replicas of those playoff bouts.
Denis Bouanga notched his second hat trick of the season in a 3-0 win over Austin on April 8, matching the scoreline from the 2022 Western Conference Final. The next weekend, the team outlasted the Galaxy in another 3-2 El Tráfico thriller, just as it did in the second round last October.
Teams change from one year to the next, but the fabled "revenge factor" hasn’t been enough to flip anyone’s fortunes against the Black and Gold this season. Come Wednesday night, as if a CCL title wasn’t motivation enough, it’ll be at an all-time high in Philadelphia.
Toughest test yet
LAFC opened on the road in both its round of 16 and quarterfinal ties with Alajuelense and Vancouver respectively. Across those 180 combined minutes, the squad has scored six goals and conceded zero. That’s an opening-leg goal differential of plus-6.
In four CCL matches thus far, they’re plus-9, averaging a goal every 36 minutes while conceding just once through 360 minutes in the competition. The Black and Gold's only loss came in CCL play – a 2-1 defeat in the second leg to Alajuelense – yet the team has still managed to post those gaudy goal differential numbers.
LAFC has been nothing short of dominant in CCL play while also getting out to the best eight-match league season start in club history. It’s a balance that’s largely been made possible by dominant first-leg showings. The recipe has been quite simple — build a lead away from home and coast on home.
But Philadelphia is a clear level up in competition from either of LAFC’s previous two opponents, and with the cancellation of their weekend MLS tilts, the Black and Gold’s depth will play a less significant role.
The Union have treaded water in MLS play so far, racking up only 11 of a possible 27 points that have them in the final non-wild card spot in the Eastern Conference. The squad played more than a quarter of its semifinal tie with Atlas up a man, scraping by 3-2 on aggregate.
Their results and the table don’t look too kindly upon the Union, but the underlying numbers paint a much more positive picture of their season to date, suggesting a stronger side than the end product has shown.
Philadelphia has underperformed on expected goals – a top-five mark in MLS – while opponents have conversely outperformed their xG when facing the Union. Going even further, Philadelphia are underperforming their non-penalty xG by more than three goals through nine league games in 2023.
This isn’t Alajuelense. This isn’t Vancouver. Philadelphia can break LAFC down. It can and will score goals over these two legs. The Black and Gold passed the first two tests with flying colors, but the Union will offer a level of resistance they’ve yet to see in CCL play thus far.
What gives first?
Bouanga outrunning his xG. Carlos Vela, Stipe Buik and Kwadwo Opoku lagging behind theirs. Philadelphia’s end product not matching the underlying production it’s generating. The all-knowing xAG oracle stay true.
Something has to give. At least one of these trends can no longer continue. And the answer to the above question might just determine the winner of this semifinal tie.
Last weekend in Nashville, Bouanga defied the probabilities with another goal from outside the box. The chance generated just 0.05 xG, the lowest of his six shots on the night.
The Gabon international is more than doubling his xG in MLS games this season to go along with two more hat tricks of goal contributions in Champions League play. He’s shouldered the load for a LAFC attack that has largely underperformed elsewhere.
Even as he took center stage with a brace in El Tráfico, Vela’s underlying production is still greater than what’s born itself out on the field. The same goes for Opoku and Buik, whose xG tallies are both double their actual production this season.
We’ve already discussed how the Union’s goal scoring output hasn’t matched the underlying totals – especially when you remove the penalty spot from the equation.
That leaves us with the crystal ball that is expected assisted goals allowed. The trend held once again over the weekend for LAFC, who were held to just a single goal in a 1-1 draw in Music City.