Where might Jose Cifuentes be headed when he leaves LAFC?

José Cifuentes started the 2023 MLS Season as an LAFC player. That came as a shock to many. 

The 24-year old Ecuadorian international attacking midfielder is still seen as one of the best European-bound prospects in Major League Soccer. However, due to his contract expiring at the end of 2023, the South American’s transfer value may be decreasing as that date gets closer.  

German-based Transferkmarkt estimates Cifuentes’ valuation to be at $13.3 million as of November, but given that they didn't move him during the offseason, and with only two days remaining in the primary MLS transfer window — some are wondering whether LAFC has lost out on part of the player’s value by holding on to him. 

Some of the concern stems from the possibility that the 24-year-old Ecuadorian could sign a pre-contract with a foreign club if he chose, thus leaving LAFC for free. According to FIFA rules, a player is allowed to negotiate and sign a “pre-contract” up to six months before the expiration of their current contract.

The purpose of this rule is clear — to allow clubs and players to sort out their futures before the already chaotic transfer windows begin. Logically, it’s better to have a job lined up than to start searching once unemployed. On the flipside, this allows clubs to forgo paying a transfer fee for a player like Cifuentes (whose contract expires six months after the summer window) by signing a pre-contract. The only downside is waiting six months for your new player to join.

To avoid this issue, clubs generally sell profitable players at least a year in advance of their contract expiration or extend the player’s contract. LAFC has not done either. As a result, the defending MLS Cup Champions will be eager to find a buyer for Cifuentes in the summer transfer window — which operates as the secondary MLS transfer window but the primary transfer window in Europe — to avoid the catastrophe of letting the Ecuadorian leave for free at the end of 2023. 

According to MLS Insider Tom Bogert, the clubs showing the most interest are Rangers FC, RCD Espanyol de Barcelona, and Leeds United. 

All three would provide Cifuentes his first European opportunity, but which would be his best landing spot?

Rangers

Pros

Cifuentes is the perfect positional fit for Rangers. He's a natural attacking midfielder who I would categorize as a classic #10. He has the ability to play an attacking #8 position — which he does at LAFC — but the #10 position is where he is most comfortable. Historically, the #10 is one of the most common positions, with the best player on the team often occupying this space. 

Unfortunately for Cifuentes, most tactical systems in modern football do not employ a true No. 10.

The most commonly used system that still does is the 4-2-3-1 formation, which is exactly what Rangers play. Currently, Todd Cantwell occupies the No. 10 position with Fashion Sakala having a breakout year on the left wing. Cantwell, though, is naturally a left-sided midfielder. To put the puzzle together, it is not a stretch to imagine Rangers being forced to sell Sakala, move Cantwell to the left wing, and slot Cifuentes into his natural #10 position. This would get the best out of him. 

Cifuentes is also likely to succeed in the play style at Rangers, which is heavily possession based. As an elite creator — ranking in the 89th percentile for both shot-creating actions and assists (per FBref) — Cifuentes would have the luxury of time to break down opponents with clever creation. That’s his best route to become an elite #10 in Rangers’ system. Though I would be remiss not to mention that averaging 67% possession would cause the Scottish Giants to miss out on Cifuentes’ fantastic counter-attacking ability — a slight con. Rangers just don’t counter very often. 

They do, however, push their opponents into a low-block due to their staggering possession, which will help take advantage of another Cifuentes strength — goalscoring. Cifuentes is in the 96th percentile among midfielders for non-penalty xG and non-penalty goals, meaning he’s picking up fantastic positions to find chances before burying those chances exactly as he would be expected to. The more Cifuentes finds himself in-and-around the opponents' box, the more chances he will have to score. Rangers will be happy to take advantage of his powerful right boot.

The final argument in favor of Rangers is the biggest difference between Rangers and the other two clubs; Rangers compete at the top of the Scottish Premiership, not the bottom. Along with Celtic, Rangers are one of the two biggest clubs in the country;  the intense “Old Firm” rivalry between the clubs is revered as one of the fiercest in the world. Though Celtic have been dominant in recent years, Rangers will always be competing for the title rather than being in a relegation battle. That is almost always a superior situation for a player to thrive, especially if they’re looking to make another jump to a bigger club later in their career, as Cifuentes likely is.

Cons

On the other side of the coin, being on a successful team means nothing but success is accepted. While Rangers have lost ten of the last eleven Premiership titles to Celtic, Rangers still edge their rivals on league titles — 55 to 52, soon to be 53 — and will want nothing more than to maintain that advantage. Further, any finish below second is unacceptable to the Rangers fanbase. If José Cifuentes went to Rangers, there is no time to settle. He has to hit the ground running immediately. Especially as an attacking player, if he doesn’t produce goal contributions within weeks of arrival, patience will wear thin, and other players will be used. Quickly falling out of favor after your first move to Europe would not be a good situation for Cifuentes.

The quality of the Scottish Premiership is the other debate. “Going to Europe” has always been the dream for young MLS players, as that is where the best footballers compete. However, with the increase in MLS quality over recent years, it is now crucial to specify where in Europe a player is transferred. With the top five European leagues still a considerable step up, transfers to the top flight in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, or England are meaningful. José Cifuentes moving from MLS to the Scottish Premiership, however, is actually a step down. According to the Soccer Power Index, Major League Soccer is the 15th best league in the world, while the Scottish Premiership ranks 17th. 

When it’s time to make the big move, José Cifuentes needs to make sure it actually is a big move.

Espanyol

Pros

A move to Spain’s La Liga would certainly qualify as a big move. Undoubtedly a top five league in the world, and by most estimates in the top three, Josê Cifuentes would become twice as famous with the stroke of a pen by signing for any La Liga team. As opposed to Rangers, which is a stepping stone to a top league, Espanyol is already in one.

La Liga is also the only top five league where Spanish is the primary language. This may seem inconsequential, but for an Ecuadorian who still doesn’t speak fluent English, it can be a big draw. This is not something Cifuentes has struggled with in Los Angeles, where there is a large Spanish-speaking population, but Scotland and England have significantly different demographics. Being happy and comfortable off the field often brings success on it. 

Speaking of, José Cifuentes could slide into Espanyol’s tactical system very easily due to the similarities with the current system he plays at LAFC. Both clubs employ a 4-3-3 system with direct, counter-attacking ideas, where the No. 8 position that Cifuentes occupies is crucial. Both dual #8s must be able to play progressive passes, receive progressive passes, progress through carries, and successfully take-on defenders. Cifuentes ranks in the 90th, 95th, 89th, and 97th percentile respectively for these categories (per FBref). These skills allow him to break the press and progress the ball forward before showing off his creative abilities.

Shining in the most important tactical positions for a struggling La Liga team would quickly get him noticed by the biggest clubs in the world.

Cons

However, Espanyol are also tactically flexible by switching formations frequently, which would regularly push Cifuentes into unfamiliar positions. The midfielder has limited experience with this under Steve Cherundolo, though not to the extent that Espanyol employ these changes. 

A genuine No. 8, whether in a 4-3-3, 3-5-2, 4-4-2, or any other system employing the position, will be asked to do both offensive and defensive work. José Cifuentes heavily favors the former. If he were to fail to contribute sufficiently on defense for a team that spends the majority of the game in a defensive shape, he could be easily replaced. We’ve seen this at LAFC with new signing Timothy Tillman taking the Ecuadorian’s position in the starting XI, mostly due to his work off the ball.

The positive spin is that tactical flexibility could be a huge asset to add to the young midfielders’ toolbox, should he be able to adapt. The negative and more practical spin, is that Cifuentes should be going to a team with a defined system that he undoubtedly fits.

The “pro” of league quality also has a catch — Espanyol may not be in La Liga come summer. At the time of writing, Espanyol sit 18th in La Liga after accruing 28 points through 30 matches. With eight matches remaining and only two points from safety, Espanyol has a 66% chance of relegation according to FiveThirtyEight. If Espanyol are relegated, it would drop them from the 3rd ranked league in the world (La Liga), to the 23rd ranked league in the world (La Liga 2) according to Soccer Power Index, well below Major League Soccer (15th). 

It should be noted that since 1994 — despite often hanging around the relegation zone — Espanyol have only spent one season in the Segunda Division since 1994. Besides, if the historic Spanish side is relegated, they likely won’t be able to afford Cifuentes anyway.

Leeds United

Pros

The Premier League is the best league in the world. England has the best players, the best managers, the most viewers, and of course, the most money. Barring an emotional anomaly, if you are currently a professional footballer, you want to play in the Premier League. It’s as simple as that.

And although Leeds United have only been back in the Premier League for three years, they are one of the biggest clubs in England.

Leeds also has deep MLS connections. The club currently employs three United States men’s national team players who all started in MLS academies. Midfielders Tyler Adams and Weston Mckennie began at FC Dallas before making their way to England via Germany, with Mckennie making an extra stop in Italy. The youngest of the group, 22-year old Brenden Aaronson, used the Austrian Bundesliga as his stepping stone from Philadelphia Union to the Premier League. 

José Cifuentes flying direct to England would be the latest evidence of Major League Soccer’s increasing ability to be the ideal stepping stone for young South Americans. 

Ironically, despite the Premier League being the best league, Leeds United is also the place where Cifuentes would be under the least pressure. At Rangers or Espanyol, he would immediately be expected to play a key role. He would be expected to start the majority of matches, producing at least 7 out of 10 performances each time out. At Leeds, however, Cifuentes would be given time to settle. Brenden Aaronson hasn’t gotten off to the best start with only four goal contributions in 30 Premier League games, but he’s being given time. Leeds still start him in 87% of matches this season. The same would be given to Cifuentes if he too had a slow transition.

Cons

The main reason he would be given so much time to settle is the high level of competition in attacking positions at Leeds. There are eight players fighting for four positions — Cifuentes would make nine. Most importantly, each one of them is good enough to start. So while time to settle and opportunities to play will always be there, it is much more difficult to prove you’re the clear starter. Cifuentes has struggled to do so with the increased quality of depth at LAFC.

Leeds, like Espanyol, are also in a relegation battle. Having recorded 29 points through 32 matches, including Saturday's loss to Fulham, Leeds are currently 16th in the table, and before Saturday's loss, at least, had  a 75% chance of survival according to FiveThirtyEight. This relative safety, combined with the quality of the English Championship as the 11th-ranked league in the world by Soccer Power Index, makes relegation less of a concern than with Espanyol, though it's obviously still a worry.

The bigger issue is the externalities of fighting relegation in the Premier League. Leeds United are on their third manager in the past two seasons, likely to rise to four should they get relegated. It is a league-wide trend with 13 Premier League managers sacked this season, the most in-season departures of any Premier League season. 

For a player transferring clubs, rotating managers is a significant concern. Leeds currently play a 4-2-3-1 under Javi Gracia — the exact formation I discussed earlier to be perfect for Cifuentes under a manager who values the Ecuadorian. Sounds great! If Gracia gets sacked though, it could quickly turn sour. Who's to say what formation the next manager will play or that they will even think Cifuentes is a good player. When choosing a club, José Cifuentes wants guarantees and assurances, not risks and uncertainty. New managers are the latter.

The choice is his

Make no mistake — Rangers, Espanyol, and Leeds aren't likely to be the only ones on the phone with LAFC this summer. Clubs all across Europe will be looking to acquire Cifuentes' talents, but it will ultimately be up to the player to decide on his next step. Interested teams will present their pitches, LAFC will narrow down which offers they would accept, and Cifutentes will choose his future. 

One thing is for sure. Wherever he goes, the LAFC faithful will keep a close eye on his blooming career.