How Houston Dynamo DP Sebastian Ferreira went from 15-20 goal expectations to zero MLS minutes

The Houston Dynamo is off to a 3-3-1 start to its 2023 MLS season under head coach Ben Olsen, and the surprise is that the team has done it mostly without the help of its most talented striker, Sebastian Ferreira. The glaring question is why has he only featured for 140 minutes through seven matches when the club has struggled to generate quality chances to score?

With nine goals scored, Dynamo FC rank in the bottom half of MLS clubs in that category. Of those goals, four have come from the penalty spot, one from a direct free kick, one off a corner kick and the latest off a goal kick. Part of the story here is the club has made a big improvement on set pieces but its attack has also struggled to generate goals in the run of play. It appears to be essentially by choice since its best attacking player has been largely on the bench.

Announced as "the most expensive signing in club history" during his arrival, Ferreira was purchased outright from Club Libertad for a reported $4.3 million transfer fee and went on to be the club's leading scorer in his first season in 2022. Ferreira has boldly stated his ambitions for the club — and personally to make the jump to European football.

"I want to continue scoring goals for the club. I want to be a historic player for the club, to be the (all-time) top scorer," Ferreira said last October. "That is the objective I have. I know it's not easy, I have to work every day. This is (a long road) and I hope I can remain in the history of the club, positively, always."

So how did the goal scorer that had high expectations, from Olsen himself even, go from a good season to no participation? Let's go through the timeline of events:

‘He scores goals’

The Paraguayan, who finished the 2022 season as the club's top scorer and set a new mark for the most goals by a player in the first season with the Dynamo, entered this year with high expectations. In his introductory press conference, Ben Olsen mentioned Ferreira as a key player alongside the likes of Adalberto "Coco" Carrasquilla and Hector Herrera.

"He scores goals," Olsen said. "Wayne Rooney scored goals, Ferreira scores goals, it's the same thing. We need to keep adding his numbers up to 15-20, 20 goals a year."

Rooney, of course, was one of Olsen's options in attack for two seasons at D.C. United. For reference, DCU qualified for the MLS Cup Playoffs with the Manchester United record goalscorer on the field but has yet to qualify since.

Olsen also described those D.C. teams as "pragmatic" and expressed his desire for a more "proactive" style with Houston. 

"In the past, if you wanted to stereotype me, as a coach, my teams are gritty, they punched above their weight," Olsen said. "They were tough to play against. I'm sure the blogs would be saying it's very defensive, and not as pleasing to watch, but effective. The challenge here now is, with these players, changing that game model that we had in D.C. United, to a more proactive style...more front foot, a little bit more exciting, higher shots on goal.

Considering the goals that Ferreira has scored in orange, the assumption was that he would have been in the plans. Perhaps that's when Corey Baird could have taken an advantage among the striker position as Feirreira and Thor Ulfarsson missed part of the preseason due to visa documentation.

One start under Olsen

Ferreira was part of Olsen's first starting XI for the team's season opener at FC Cincinnati. Baird and newcomer Ivan Franco, Ferreira's former teammate at Club Libertad, featured as wingers to round out the front three.

The team struggled to connect with Ferreira, leaving him only two shots inside the penalty area. Ulfarsson replaced him in the 78th minute of the encounter as Houston lost 2-1 in its first match of the year.

"I think we can be cleaner in our transition moments, when we do win the ball. We had enough possession, and enough good attacks, playing balls forward when we wanted, to give him more success and more touches in front of goal," Olsen elaborated a few days after the game. "More service. I thought we probably passed up three or four really good opportunities to get service into the box. Our numbers in the box were very good. Our average of player in the box hit our target of where we want to be in that three to four players per service. So that that part was all there. Now it's just about delivery.

"It's not where we want him," he said of Ferreira dropping to midfield and confirmed wanting him in a traditional '9' role. "No doubt. That's been very clear over the last six weeks."

Ferreira to the bench

Ferreira was dropped to the bench in favor for Ulfarsson for the team's second match at the New England Revolution. Franco and Baird featured again as the starting wingers.

With the cold weather, and a pre-match forecast of snowy conditions, it could have been assumed that perhaps the conditions lent way for the Icelandic forward. With the team down 0-2, Ulfarsson was replaced with Ferreira in the 59th minute with Amine Bassi and Nelson Quinones joining the front line seven minutes later.

"Amine came in and gave us good minutes, but the game is over at that point," Olsen said after the match. "Again, we're a work in progress on the offensive end for sure. And there's so much good. When our structure was good, we won the ball, we're moving forward in transition and we're just not clean and we're not seeing out plays in the way that we need to, so we cannot chase the game. That was disappointing again for the second week in a row. The effort is there. The structures in the defensive end, the ideas offensively are coming along, so a lot of good, but it's shadowed by a 3-0 loss."

When asked about the change in the starting lineup at forward, Olsen responded with "coach's choice."

Ferreira had one scoring opportunity in New England. Only Franco had more with two.

Baird appointed as starting striker

The Dynamo had a break in its schedule and resumed play on March 18 for its home opener against Austin FC. Baird was the starting striker as Bassi and Franco were out wide.

Houston took a 1-0 lead in the 71st minute thanks to a Bassi conversion from the penalty spot. Ferreira was subbed on in the 79th minute for Franco and played a part in a Hector Herrera goal, the team's first from the run of play, to seal the 2-0 win.

Ferreira pulled three Austin FC players to him on the scoring play. Herrera goes on to take the ball and play off Griffin Dorsey all while Ferreira has the attention of Dani Pereira, one of the Verde's key defensive players. Ferreira's best opportunity of the season came in the 89th minute on a missed breakaway opportunity, arguably the best opportunity by either of the three strikers this year.

"It's just a coach's decision," Olsen reiterated in his postmatch comments. "What Corey does is a little bit different than what Sebas does. Corey's ability to give us a little bit more structure in the defensive side right now, and also threaten the line with his pace and his repeat sprintability, I thought was the right call for this game. Sebas has been great, he's been a pro, working really hard at training, and I thought he gave us really good minutes when he came on.” 

Baird, Bassi and Quiñones (in for Franco due to a personal matter) started against New York City FC. Once again, Houston took the lead on a PK. Ferreira came on in the 84th minute and had a shot on goal in his first touch, albeit from a difficult angle like an opportunity he had versus Cincinnati.

"All strikers need to score," Olsen said afterward. "We've been getting away with it, not having our forwards score over the run of play, but it’ll come. If (Baird) keeps doing what he's doing and putting himself in the right spots, it'll come. I want to mention Sebas. I thought, that's not an easy role to come in for 10 minutes in the role that he is with this team, and give us that type of effort; I thought he did a great job, a real selfless job to help us out for those last 10 minutes."

Ferreira started on the bench for a fourth consecutive match, a 2-1 loss at San Jose. Baird did gain the foul inside the penalty area as Bassi scored from the spot for a third attempt. The Paraguayan came on in the 76th minute in a straight swap for Baird.

"We're getting chances in run a play," said Olsen when asked about scoring opportunities. "We would like to get more, but we're getting looks. Still the final ball, still quality, still higher chances. We're working on it. We're working on that part, but we continue to score. PKs count, and set pieces count."

Thor moves up to second in line

Ulfarsson, who does provide more height at the position, now appears to have moved up the depth chart to second in the pecking order. After getting zero MLS minutes in three consecutive matches, the second-year MLS player was called off the bench in the Matchday 7 encounter against the LA Galaxy.

Bassi, Baird and Franco were again up front from the start. This would be one of Baird's better games as he would draw the foul that led to Hector Herrera scoring off a free kick. Against a 10-man Galaxy in the second half, Baird collected an assist on Bassi's second goal of the night. Both of those plays from Baird came from out wide, not from the center of the field.

Without Herrera against New York Red Bulls, the Dynamo were very much a pragmatic team that only generated three attacking opportunities. Two of those came from Carrasquilla with Franco collecting the other. Off the bench, Ulfarsson helped nearly take three points by winning an aerial duel in favor of his team. Franco and Ulfarsson were the only substitutes as a tired Dynamo gave up a goal in the 89th minute to leave with a 1-1 tie against a shorthanded Red Bulls that couldn't convert on any of their 18 shots, in part due to six saves from Steve Clark.

What does the future hold?

The preference has been clear to have Baird playing as the starting striker. When asked about Ferreira's loss of minutes, Olsen expressed that he had addressed the issue previously.

"He's a great box player," Dynamo general manager Pat Onstad said on KFNC 97.5 FM. "But I think, Ben and his staff, they were looking for something a little more different. They wanted something probably a little more defensively stable and a guy that could repeat runs in behind and continue to put pressure on the opposing defense.

"Surprisingly, as a metric, I think I talked about this last year, he may not look like the fastest guy in the world but I believe he's sixth on our roster in terms of top-end speed," Onstad added of Ferreira. "So he has it in him. He has that in his toolbox. He has the ability to stretch it. Corey is a little bit faster as top-end speed but in the end, they both can stretch the defense, is he willing to do it, that's something that we need to continue to work with him on."

Both Onstad and Olsen have expressed the door isn't shut on the Dynamo DP. He hasn't had a lot of opportunity, however, and his minutes have been diminishing since the second game of the season.

Ferreira will have to beat the challenge of not being game fit as well. Then there's the question of is the club is making good use of the Designated Player tag he occupies.

Onstad did not address the rumors of whether the striker is being shopped around. He did mention that the player will have to make use of the minutes he gets.

"Sebastian is a guy who we spent a lot of money on," Onstad said on the radio. "As you said, he knows how to score goals in this league. The big thing for us, and I think for him to be successful, is getting him into the box and getting him service. In all fairness, in 140 minutes, he hasn't had a ton but what I would say is, like I said before, I think when you get those opportunities, he needs to bury them, and we know he can do that."