Ready for a first? LAFC prepares for possible milestone in El Trafico

LAFC is now the only remaining unbeaten in all of MLS. The LA Galaxy are one of only two teams left without a win in 2023. 

The Black and Gold have scored three goals in each of their last three matches. The Galaxy have scored just three goals all season.

On paper, this contest should be hardly anything more than a moot point, a formality of a contest to merely cross off the calendar. But El Trafico follows neither convention nor any rhyme or reason, and there’s no reason to expect this weekend’s edition should behave any differently.

“Especially in the derby,” Giorgio Chiellini said, “the table doesn’t count. Anything could happen.”

First time for everything

In eight tries across all competitions since entering the league in 2018, LAFC is still yet to win a match at Dignity Health Sports Park. Only twice have they even escaped with so much as a point, much less all three.

Last season, the Black and Gold nearly escaped with a draw in a regular-season match before Latif Blessing’s equalizer at the death was ruled offside via a lengthy VAR decision. They made the trip back to Carson a month later for the U.S. Open Cup quarterfinals, only to receive a swift 3-1 trouncing.

But this time, more than any other year, it’s different. 

The Galaxy have scored as many goals all season as LAFC has scored in each of its last three matches played. Denis Bouanga is, through six games, doubling up the Galaxy’s season output on his own.

Last time out, the Galaxy were on the wrong side of a 3-0 beatdown to Houston that saw both Martín Cáceres and Douglas Costa sent off. LAFC, conversely, was on the winning end of a 3-0 result over the Whitecaps that saw them through to the semifinals of the Concacaf Champions League.

These are two clubs currently sprinting in opposite directions of each other – a moment ripe for LAFC to finally bring all three points back up the 110.

“For this particular week,” Cherundolo said,” I’m not sure it’s any different from any other derby against them … It’s still a really difficult game, but we’d like to see it in a positive manner, so I see it as an opportunity.”

But it has been a struggle away from home in league play for LAFC this season, who still hasn’t found the back of the net in an away venue. Of course, they have scored six goals in two away tilts in CCL play, but still an alarming trend nonetheless.

They’ve lost the xG battle, conceding more chances, been outshot and given up more set piece opportunities in both of their road contests in league play this season. It’s a stark contrast with a side that’s scored 12 goals across four MLS games at BMO Stadium in 2023.

These specific matchup numbers (more on that in the xAG Oracle) say there are goals to be had. LAFC’s league record away from home – albeit a small sample – says the visitors might struggle to find them.

There were 13 combined goals scored across three MLS meetings between these sides in 2022, with at least five in two of them. History suggests they’ll need to win a shootout, and if LAFC wants its first-ever win in Carson, they’ll have to light it up away from home for the first time this year.

“Usually in Italy,” Chiellini said, “we don’t have a lot of goals in the derby… I was surprised when I saw the previous results of El Trafico with a lot of goals. We have to be ready for everything during the game, comebacks and other things that could happen.

The xAG Oracle’s biggest test

I’m going to keep beating this drum game in and game out until it proves an unreliable predictor of LAFC’s attacking performance, and ultimately, goal scoring output.

For the uninitiated, LAFC’s ability to break down an opponent and find the back of the net has almost directly correlated with the opposing team’s league standing in expected assisted goals allowed. 

The wins for the Black and Gold have come against teams in the bottom third – a 10-man FC Dallas being the exception. And the draws  – scoreless at that – have come against the two highest-ranked squads they’ve faced in Seattle and Colorado.

Even the recent boom in goals scored – three in each of their last three games – have followed the trend. Vancouver is surrendering a league-worst xAG per 90 minutes while Austin is similarly towards the bottom.

So, that brings us to the all-important question: Where do the Galaxy rank?

Through six games in 2023, the Galaxy are eighth-worst in MLS in expected assisted goals allowed, well within the bottom third of the league. They’re conceding 0.99 xAG per 90 minutes – more than a half goal worse than Austin and significantly worse than a Vancouver side that LAFC just trounced 6-0 across two CCL quarterfinal legs.

The xAG oracle is still yet to let us down this season, proving a shockingly reliable predictor of how this LAFC attacking machine will perform. But El Trafico has proven time and time again to be reliably unpredictable, and this weekend will prove the trend’s biggest test.

Throw it all out the window

Everything I just said up there – yes, all 869 words of it – doesn’t matter.

It doesn’t matter one bit.

We can sit here and look at statistical trends and use recent history and form to predict how this weekend’s contest will go. But it’s futile. It always is.

“In these games in the past,” Cherundolo said, “it’s nothing really tactically that decides these matches. It’s always the individuals on the field. It’s the intensity of the game. It’s second balls… It’s a very, very tight margin in these matches.”

The very first El Trafico saw seven combined goals – a 4-3 result in favor of the Galaxy – and that doesn’t even crack the top two highest-scoring matches of this rivalry.

In 2019, even as LAFC was on its way to claiming the Supporters’ Shield and racking up a then league-record point total, the Galaxy went unbeaten in the season series. They defended home field with a 3-2 win in July before stealing a point on the road in a 3-3 deadlock a month later.

But in October of that same year, LAFC scored the second-most goals in the history of El Trafico, sending the Galaxy home in the playoffs by a final score of 5-3.

LAFC handed the Galaxy a similar fate a season ago, even after dropping the first regular season contest and getting run off the field in their Open Cup meeting. The Galaxy entered that playoff quarterfinal playing arguably the best soccer in the league, but the chaos – and Denis Bouanga – tipped the scales in favor of the Black and Gold.

So even as supporters continue to boycott in Carson and we expect a sea of black to take over Dignity Health Sports Park ... even as the Galaxy’s early season struggles came to an explosive head last weekend in Houston …

Even as LAFC are scoring goals at a pace unmatched by anyone else in the league … and even as the Black and Gold have won the last two meetings …

None of that matters.

“If we can execute our plan properly,” Cherundolo said, “then I think we can come away – with a little luck because you always need it in these games – with three points.”