All that stands between LAFC and its second-ever trip to the semifinals of the Concacaf Champions League is 90 minutes — plus a Vancouver side already down three goals.
A 10-minute explosion from Denis Bouanga, racking up two goals and an assist in last week’s first leg, has lent LAFC that cushion. He only went and followed that up with a hat trick in a win over Austin on Saturday – his second of the season.
Vancouver also enters this midweek matchup on the heels of a victory, having taken care of Portland 1-0 over the weekend. And if you throw out their second-leg defeat to Real España in the last round, last week’s loss to LAFC is the Whitecaps' only defeat since Mar. 4.
Here are some keys to the match that could send LAFC to CCL's final four.
Don’t let them in it
Even despite getting shut out at home in the first leg of this quarterfinal, the Whitecaps have still scored seven goals in just three CCL matches – including a five-spot they hung on Real España on Mar. 8.
It’s also not the only time they’ve scored five in a game this year, putting that amount past Montreal on Apr. 1. Last Wednesday’s opening leg is the only time Vancouver has been held scoreless in 2023.
Erasing a three-goal deficit in 90 minutes is an incredibly tall task, but it can come in waves for Vancouver, especially if LAFC is content to coast on home. As much as that drum has been beaten to death – myself as guilty as anyone – that’s exactly what happened in the Round of 16.
After amassing an identical 3-0 advantage away from home in the first leg, Alajuelense clawed its way back into the tie. The visitors were a goal away from forcing extra time from the 52nd through the 83rd minute, and even flubbed an excellent chance at the equalizer in the 72nd.
“I think there is a lesson to be learned from that game,” Cherundolo said. “It is that we are warned that things can go quickly in the wrong direction.”
LAFC enters Tuesday night’s contest on the heels of a dominant 3-0 victory over Austin, and that aforementioned second leg came off a similarly dominant league win at home – a 4-0 drubbing of New England.
Of course, a result like Saturday night’s makes no guarantees for how this team will perform even days later. For Cherundolo, that means continuing to hammer home the “one game at a time” approach, even as a congested schedule continues to turn over.
“Our next match is always the priority,” Cherundolo said.
Fresh legs
While the preceding results for this contest and the return leg against Alajuelense appear extremely alike, there is one major difference between the two – rest.
Cherundolo only made three changes to the starting eleven between the match against New England and the midweek CCL bout with Alajuelense. It’s possible we see four or five changes from Saturday’s eleven come Tuesday night.
Both Aaron Long and Jesús Murillo never had to see the field over the weekend, as Denil Maldanado made his first MLS start alongside Giorgio Chiellini. John McCarthy also got his first rest of the season, with Eldin Jakupovic blanking Austin between the posts in relief. Even Carlos Vela, Illie Sánchez and Ryan Holingshead – all likely starters against Vancouver – only ran for a half an hour.
“I’m glad I’m not Steve in these moments,” Holingshead said. “Where you’ve gotta figure out how to rotate the right people at the right times, but keep the coherency with the group and keep the momentum going forward … Steve’s done a great job balancing that.”
But the rotation goes even deeper than just the upcoming contest. With El Trafico around the corner on Sunday – LAFC’s fifth game in just over two weeks – the decisions have to be much more big-picture.
Ahead of last weekend’s matchup with Austin, Cherundolo made it clear many decisions at this stage of the season were based around rotation and fitness, especially with the congested schedule. The best possible lineup for any given matchup could very well be determined well in advance, as likely will have been the case with Tuesday night’s team sheet.
“There is 11 players who will give LAFC the best chance to win in every game,” Cherundolo said, “after we take into consideration all the factors – fitness, rhythm, form and the opponent as well, those certain one-v-one matchups and battles, so we take all those things into consideration to decide on an 11 to win that particular game.”
Is it sustainable?
On Wednesday night in Vancouver, LAFC scored multiple goals against a side fielding eleven players for the first time in nearly a month. It was a breakthrough after weeks of stagnation and a lack of cohesion going forward.
But all three of those goals were either scored or assisted by Bouanga, and calling what he did an assist in one case hardly does his role justice. The “assist” in question was single-handedly wrecking a Whitecap defender at the top of the box, spilling the ball for Opoku to slot home.
“He is obviously a player that can change the game individually,” Cherundolo said. “He has that quality. But now he also has the knowledge of our teammates and our game model … I would not like to be an outside back against Denis. I’ll tell you that much.”
Bouanga’s 14 goal contributions across all competitions are by far the most of any MLS player this season, and to add a bit of context, his team has only scored 18 in 2023. He’s also scored or assisted on LAFC’s last seven – a stretch that dates back to Mar. 25.
The scoreboard shows us – six goals in the last 125 minutes – that the Black and Gold have turned a corner in attack. But how long can this team sustain its goal-scoring output while relying so heavily on one attacker who’s significantly overperforming his underlying numbers?
There is reason for optimism, though. For as much as Bouanga may be outperforming his xG, Carlos Vela is significantly underperforming his. His 0.66 expected goals per 90 minutes have only translated into a single league goal through six matches this season. If we expect some regression from Bouanga, we have to similarly expect an ascension from Vela.
Our verdict won’t be reached in just one match, and what might turn into a slog at BMO Stadium on Tuesday night might not shed much light. But it’s certainly something to keep an eye on moving forward, as this team continues to find its attacking footing.