Should Atlanta United offer Miles Robinson a DP contract?

This isn’t about whether Miles Robinson is good enough at soccer. This is about roster building within the constraints of a salary cap league that forces teams to operate in the confines of wholly unique parameters to the sport.

It’s not even really about the salary cap. It’s about using one of your three available Designated Player spots on a center back. If the question is whether a player like Robinson entering their prime is worth paying a salary higher than the Max TAM threshold of $1,683,750 next year, the answer is most likely, “Yes, in every league but MLS.” Change that question to whether or not Atlanta should have a player like Robinson occupy one of three hyper-crucial roster spots and the calculus changes. 

Coming into the year off an Achilles tear, the answer in January would have been a hard “no.” But, six games into the season, Robinson is making plays like this …

And this …

And this …

He might be better than he’s ever been. And that’s a tremendous accomplishment. It also presents a potentially tremendous dilemma for Atlanta United. 

However, before we talk about what that decision looks like, we have to acknowledge ...

Miles Robinson holds all the leverage

The caveat to any discussion around this situation is that Robinson could want to leave Atlanta when his contract expires at the end of the season and that’s that. His contract expires at the end of the year. If his goal is to go to Europe, he can just go. Enjoy him while you can and all that. 

If he’s willing to stay in MLS for the right price, though, that changes things. Per the most recent MLS collective bargaining agreement, Robinson’s salary budget charge designates him as a Tier 2 free agent, which of course means OH NO WAIT COME BACK I PROMISE THIS WHOLE THING WON’T BE ABOUT CBAs. 

To wit: MLS teams that aren’t Atlanta can only offer Robinson up to a 15% increase on his 2022 guaranteed compensation of $737,500 — theoretically, about $848,125. Atlanta can offer him anything it wants. Frankly, that means Atlanta are the only MLS team in play here. And it also means that there might just be a world where they can offer a Max TAM deal of $1.68 million (the most he can count against the cap without becoming a DP) and convince him to stay around.

Perhaps they already have.

“We've been having ongoing discussions with him,” Carlos Bocanegra said in November. “We've got a four-year guaranteed deal on the table for Miles as we speak, and we've been in discussions for a while with him and his agency. He's someone we want to build around. He's someone we want to be here for the long haul. And so you know that is on the table for him right now and we hope to have some good news hopefully before the end of the year with Miles being a longtime Atlanta United player.”

Obviously, that good news didn’t come. When asked about the deal before the season, Robinson said he wanted to bet on himself. 

“I think it’s one of those things. You just kind of have to believe in yourself. And I’ve done that my whole career and I don’t really ever play with fear or wake up scared or anything like that. I kind of go out and take what I think I deserve.”

It’s entirely possible the initial contract offer fell short of that Max TAM threshold. Robinson rightfully made the choice to provide proof of concept post-Achilles tear and now it feels like it might take at least a Max TAM deal to keep him around. Or, again, he already has a Max TAM deal on the table, but he really wants to go to Europe and all this discussion is moot. 

It seems clear that a Max TAM would certainly be worth it if he’s willing to take it. But what if it will take a sweeter offer to be convinced to stay in Atlanta? What if it’s a DP deal or bust for Robinson? 

'As safe a bet as they can make' 

Again, just to reiterate here, we’re talking about Defender of the Year-caliber center back and the first choice for the USMNT entering his prime. A four-year deal would take him through his age-30 season. You’re very likely going to get the best version of Miles Robinson, which means you’re essentially going to get a top-five defender in the league at the very least. I don’t have any trouble saying that because we know who Robinson is at this point. 

Atlanta United’s DP philosophy is going to shift under Garth Lagerwey toward bringing in prime-age players. As he puts it, you simply have more data on older players. You hit on signings at a higher rate when you know more about them. I think it’s fair to point out that they aren’t going to know more about any player in the world than the longest-tenured member of Atlanta United. This is as safe a bet as they can make. 

However, safe bets aren’t always the right bets. I did a straw poll of folks around MLS and Atlanta United and received decidedly more “no” responses than “yes” responses in favor of giving Robinson a DP deal. There are a few reasons for that. And they all have far more to do with Robinson's position than his overall ability. 

Simply put, giving center backs a DP deal is generally seen around the league as bad roster building, or at least not ideal roster building. The central thesis revolves around the idea that you have to pay to score goals in a way you don’t have to pay to keep them out. Defensive players are replaceable in a way successful attacking players aren’t. You only get three shots at bringing in top-end-level attacking talent via DP deals, so you better use all three. 

You also have to consider that there are roadblocks that would have to be cleared to even make a DP deal possible. Let’s imagine the team gives Robinson a DP deal. If Thiago Almada, a Young DP, leaves, Atlanta will have three standard DPs in Robinson, Luiz Araujo and Giorgos Giakoumakis. That means they’ll only be allowed one U22 slot instead of the three they have now. The only way they’ll be able to utilize all three U22 slots is if Robinson replaces one of Araujo or Giakoumakis and Atlanta signs another Young DP. 

Araujo could, in theory, be moved along. Some folks would actually prefer that at this point. However, you would be taking a risk in this scenario by limiting one of your spots on the wing to a TAM player rather than a DP. That shrinks your pool of available (and more productive) wingers considerably. 

Is Robinson worth those risks? As good as he is, a lot of folks around the league will tell you he isn’t. No center back is. Other folks will tell you, “It’s Miles Robinson; just do it.” 

Both sides make excellent points. I don’t know the answer here. However, I think any answer besides “Robinson just wants to get to Europe” will be fascinating, and may tell us a lot about Atlanta’s roster-building strategy going forward. 

The best-case scenario for Atlanta United seems to be Robinson agreeing to a TAM deal. But that may not be the best-case scenario for Robinson. It could all be that simple in the end. For now, just throw Robinson’s contract situation on the pile with Thiago Almada’s future as one of the defining questions of Atlanta United’s future.