The flight from Los Angeles to San José, Costa Rica lasts roughly five and a half hours — and for LAFC, it preceded a 3-0 battering of Alajuelense in the first leg of LAFC’s Concacaf Champions League Round of 16 tie.
This time around, the air time has been cut in half, as the quarterfinal round of the CCL sends the Black and Gold north to Vancouver for leg one Wednesday night.
An MLS team won this competition for the first time a season ago, we know for certain one will play for a spot in this year’s final. This time next week – just two matches later – we’ll know which one.
Unstoppable force, immovable object
Vancouver in its round of 16 first leg… 5-0 victory.
LAFC in its round of 16 first leg… 3-0 victory.
The Whitecaps scored seven combined goals across both legs of their CCL bout with Real España last month. They’ve yet to be held scoreless this season and hung a five-spot on Montreal last time out on Saturday.
Getting to 16 goals across all competitions is a total more than any other MLS side has achieved so far this season, and the underlying numbers are there to back it up. Vancouver generates the third-most expected goals in all of MLS and they're second in non-penalty expected goals.
“I think they’re very good this year,” Steve Cherundolo said of Vancouver, "and made some good signings, spent money. They have a very deep roster and a clear way of playing.”
On the other side of the equation, LAFC has only conceded four times across all competitions in 2023 and just twice over the last six games. The Black & Gold have conversely conceded the third-fewest expected goals in MLS this season.
Neither of these teams backed away from the game in their respective first legs in the previous round, netting a combined 8 goals in those contests. Those efforts earned them both the breathing room to coast into the quarterfinals, even though they both suffered second-leg defeats.
It’s a mentality familiar to those still around from their run to the final back in 2020. With COVID-19 shortening the knockout rounds to a single leg, LAFC has had to win every match it has played since the 2-0 loss to Leon in the 2020 Round of 16.
“Scoring goals is a part of our DNA at LAFC," Cherundolo said. "No matter where we are, so that doesn’t change.”
Unstoppable – but very movable
Vancouver has scored in every game this season, but the Whitecaps have also conceded in all but two – their only victories on the year.
I harped on expected assisted goals allowed over the weekend and how Colorado’s even middling performance in the statistical category would make life difficult for LAFC. I’ll save you the trouble of watching those 90 minutes that even Ryan Hollingshead described as “boring.”
And it indeed made life difficult.
“We played too many long balls,” Carlos Vela said. “We didn’t wait for open spaces for the defense, therefore our teammates can’t find the right pass or the way we want to pass.”
In fact, expected assisted goals allowed has indicated how this LAFC team has performed in this young season.
The Black & Gold have faced two teams in the bottom third of MLS in xAG allowed – Portland and New England. LAFC scored three goals in its opener against Portland and poured in four the following weekend against New England.
Towards the middle, we find those Rapids, against whom LAFC failed to find a breakthrough last weekend. That leaves two teams in the upper third in Seattle and Dallas, the former similarly shutting them out while Dallas gave their attack fits despite going a man down just 35 minutes in.
LAFC is still finding its rhythm, still learning to be a patient unit that can meticulously disorganize opponents like we saw at their peak a season ago.
So where does Vancouver rank? 19th.
The Whitecaps are roughly equidistant from the middling Rapids and the bottom-feeding (in this category, at least) Timbers and Revolution. The conditions may not be ripe for an avalanche, but there are certainly goals to be had, goals that won’t demand the disciplined attacking effort that’s recently evaded this team.
“Of course,” Vela said,” we know we can play way better. It’s not a good sign but also a good sign when not are in your best feeling… but still in [CCL] in a good spot to advance. I think this shows the team is a good team.”
Troubles up north
In his media availability Tuesday, Vancouver head coach Vanni Sartini called LAFC “the best team in North America," adding a geography lesson of sorts by saying, "from Yukon to Panama, the best team.”
Cherundolo was quick to dismiss his statement as “not true,” and if there is a place where it doesn't hold up, it’s BC Place.
LAFC has lost its last four trips to Vancouver, failing to score in half of them and not once scoring multiple goals. The visitors haven’t won a game on Canadian soil – or turf – in over four years.
“The turf isn’t ideal,” Cherundolo said, “but it’s the same for both teams. In that case, Vancouver is obviously a little more used to it than we are and use it as an advantage.”
Additionally, the Black & Gold are yet to score a goal away from home against an MLS side in 180-plus minutes this season, conceding the majority of possession and chances in those minutes.
“We have solutions,” Cherundolo said, “as do Vancouver, I’m assuming. It comes down to which team implements those better. We were not able to be better than Colorado the other night, but I expect and we hope for a better performance tomorrow.”
There’s reason – and statistical evidence – to believe this game could go any which way imaginable. Both teams could open the floodgates and both sides are equally as capable at damning the other side up.
So strap in and toss your assumptions to the wind. We’ll make sense of next Tuesday’s return leg once the dust settles on this one.
