Normally we’d spend this part of the week looking back at the video from Saturday’s game and attempting to explain in detail what went right and what went wrong for Atlanta United, while trying to get at the heart of whether or not the team will ever return to glory. In this case, well …
Here, look, I found all the video clips you need to break down whether or not Atlanta United is good at soccer again or not.
I’ll be honest. I watched the game back. Didn’t learn anything. It just reinforced what we already know: Atlanta United were ruthless in transition, opened the game up early enough to keep Portland from retreating into an 8-0-2 formation, kept their foot on the gas and just pummeled the hell out of them for 90 minutes. All the analysis I can offer here feels like analysis of Georgia football playing an FCS team. “Yes, we can conclusively confirm after a 65-7 win that Georgia was bigger, faster, stronger and much better at football.”
This Atlanta United team is good. Maybe great. Especially with Giorgos Giakoumakis in the starting XI, making brutal off-ball runs and making every single attacking moment a total nightmare for opposing center backs.
However, there is a bit of a problem. And that’s what I want to spend time talking about today. Because, to be honest, I’m a total bummer.
Thiago Almada wants to go to Europe. That’s not new information. He said as much before he came to Atlanta, he’s said as much since he arrived and he’ll continue to say as much until it happens. Even if it is hidden at times behind measured, media-ready responses that suggest he’s just trying to take things game by game. We know at this point what the next step in his career arc looks like and it doesn’t involve becoming an MLS lifer.
The question then — and I mean THE question— when it comes to how much success Atlanta United can have this season is whether that move happens in the summer or in the winter.
Real quick, off the top of your head, name Almada’s backup.
If your answer was something like, “Uhhhh ….. uhhhh … I mean, well … I don’t know, they could … two eights or something? Maybe Tyler Wolff?” then you’re on the right track. There is no immediately available contingency plan. And even if Almada were easily replaceable from a talent standpoint, there are still MLS roster rules in place that will make bringing a new No. 10 more difficult.
WARNING: MLS ROSTER RULES DISCUSSION STARTS HERE.
I’ll try to make it simple. Almada is a Young Designated Player. When you have two Designated Players and a Young Designated Player, you can have up to three U22 players. When you have three Designated Players, you can only have one U22. Therefore, unless Atlanta jettisons two of their three U22 players (Franco Ibarra, Santiago Sosa, Erik Lopez), they could only immediately replace Almada with another Young Designated Player. That means you're limited to players under 23.
Maybe in the past, that wouldn’t be an issue. Atlanta United has clearly shown they're willing to go after young players with high potential. That profile of player, as you’re probably well aware, has been very hit-and-miss. That's across the whole league; it's not just an Atlanta thing. That’s probably why Garth Lagerwey has been averse to giving a DP spot to young players throughout his career. He’s mentioned openly that Atlanta will probably look elsewhere when it comes to their next DP signing.
“We really wanted a prime-age player,” Lagerwey said earlier this year. “You heard me talk about that at GG’s introductory press conference. We didn't want a kid for this job. We wanted somebody who was prime age, 24 to 29. And I think that's the way you'll see us lean potentially in the future. Obviously, Thiago Almada might be one of the best players in the league this year. We think he will be. So it's not that one is better than the other, but just that there's a preference for one or two of these spots in the spine of the team, to have a little bit more experience.”
It’s a philosophy that hits at something critical to this entire process and to the process of roster building in MLS in general: Atlanta doesn’t need the money.
They don’t. I know we tend to get caught up in record fees and “Godfather” offers teams can’t refuse. The thing is though, there are very, very few offers that Atlanta United and Arthur Blank couldn’t refuse. If we were talking about a small market team worrying about gate revenue and diversified sources of income, this would be a different conversation. This is NFL/Home Depot, most popular team in MLS, Scrooge McDuck diving into a pile of gold coins money.
I think Almada will break the MLS transfer record. He’ll bring in more than Alphonso Davies and more than Miguel Almiron. But, in the end, whether Atlanta makes $14 million or $9 million more than Almada’s reported $16 million fee likely doesn’t register all that much for a man worth somewhere around $7.6 billion. Blank’s yacht reportedly cost $180 million. A world where an “offer Atlanta can’t refuse” comes in just doesn’t reasonably exist. That threshold is, what, something like $50 million plus? Almada is a talent, but no one has suggested a number much higher than $35 million is in play.
Additionally, it likely doesn’t matter all that much regarding the fee itself whether it comes in the summer or winter. It won’t change what teams are willing to pay for one of the best young talents in the world. In fact, it may even raise his value if he stays on track and puts up one of the best seasons in MLS history. It also may not! What extra data points do you need at this point?
Frankly, I’m willing to bet that a legitimate shot at another title and recapturing the imagination of the city is worth more to AMBSE than recouping the annual salary of Falcons lineman Jake Mathews via a transfer fee. Perhaps that’s misguided on my part. More money is in fact better than less money. But the key point here is even if Atlanta needed some cash, that money should still be there waiting for them in the winter.
It’s not Atlanta getting an offer they can’t refuse that’s the issue. It’s Almada.
He came to Atlanta with the promise that they could help him get to one of the world’s biggest teams. If an Arsenal or Atleti come calling, Almada almost certainly won’t turn it down. Being named to the MLS Best XI presented by Audi isn’t the prize he’s chasing in his career.
At that point, Atlanta’s hands are tied. The odds of working out a deal for Almada to stay in Atlanta through the season before joining [MASSIVE CLUB] aren’t in the best interest of Almada or [MASSIVE CLUB]. He’s going to go.
So, Atlanta likely won’t be able to replace him immediately with the kind of DP signing they want to make. There is a world, I guess, where U22s Erik Lopez and Santiago Sosa are transferred out. The team has been trying to move Lopez anyway and, kind of shockingly considering where we were at to start the season, Sosa isn’t starting right now and it’s hard to see him overtaking Franco Ibarra as the team’s No. 6. But that world that allows Atlanta to sign a full DP this summer doesn’t feel all that likely. Even if it is likely in the further future.
What could be the plan then?
Well, keep in mind, Atlanta wouldn’t have the open full DP spot they’re hoping to use in the future. But it does have a couple of open roster spots. And the team has seemed confident they’ll be able to make a bigger move this summer, especially if a full transfer for Marcelino Moreno goes through while he’s on loan.
“The big difference structurally here compared to the summer stuff we've done in Seattle is we have a bunch of players out on loan here. So the significance of that is those players on loan could be sold,” Lagerwey said earlier this year. “So that then builds in flexibility right there because if you are able to sell on those players, then potentially you could gain from the sale. So you could actually wind up with a big bucket of money in the summer."
Moreno’s sale would likely open Atlanta to bring in a player on something near or at a max TAM deal. What if Atlanta chooses to find a No. 10 in the near term that fits into that mold? Will that player be Almada? No. But they could still be effective and solve Atlanta’s most immediate problem. The full DP spot could then be used on the Joao Paulo-esque, “prime-age” midfielder this team has lacked at the No. 8 spot.
Or, patience, as it often is with Lagerwey in charge, could be the keyword. Atlanta could lose Almada this summer and wait until they can bring in a prime-age replacement. That might be after this season. It honestly might be best to prepare yourself for that now. Just for the possibility. In the end, though, that patience may pay off in the long run. It has everywhere else Lagerwey has been.