The case for keeping Luiz Araujo as Palmeiras rumors swirl

Before we go anywhere, we have to talk about why we’re here at all. 

There are legitimate rumors and reports that Palmeiras are working to make a deal for Luiz Araujo. Palmeiras is a massive club in Brazil and likely has the capital and pull to make a move like this happen. Araujo began his professional career with Palmeiras’ in-town rivals São Paulo FC and both sides will be well aware of what the other can offer. You may have noticed Araujo follows a handful of Palmeiras folks on Instagram. In short, there’s a lot of smoke here. 

Now, just to illustrate how ridiculous transfer reports like this can be and what kind of information we’re working with, let’s take a quick detour. The most recent reports out of Brazil have Atlanta United refusing to budge on a $12 million price tag. Essentially, the report indicates that Atlanta want a match for the reported transfer fee they gave Lille to bring in Araujo back in the summer of 2021. I’m appropriately skeptical of that, but I’m not outright doubting it. 

However, you may have also noticed internet talk that a unique offer has been put on the table. Former LAFC and current Palmeiras midfielder Eduard Atuesta has been struggling since leaving LAFC. In his time in MLS, Atuesta profiled as a player set to make a jump to a major European club. That jump didn’t happen. Apparently, it won’t happen with Palmeiras either. All indications are that he’s been struggling since joining the club. Couple his struggles out of MLS with consistent buzz around Araujo to Palmeiras plus a major weak link in Atlanta’s midfield and you get me sending out dumb things like this.

That’s maybe not a totally ridiculous idea on its face. But player swaps are extremely rare. The whole thing is clearly farfetched and not something anyone should expect to happen or even be discussed. It’s such an unheard of thing that, if you search through on Twitter, my tweet is the second time in history Araujo and Atuesta have even been mentioned together. A Palmeiras fan had the same idea about a week before, but it didn’t quite pick up the same traction and almost certainly didn’t result in multiple Palmeiras fan and media accounts in his DMs. 

So, imagine my surprise when, ten days later, a Goal.com report suggested that Atuesta could be included as part of the deal. Could there actually be truth behind that and I just happened to preemptively (and half-jokingly) hit on a key piece of an ongoing transfer deal? Sure. Like I said, the idea has some sense to it. Could there also possibly be a chance that a tweet from a blue checkmark Atlanta journalist got put into a game of Internet Telephone and eventually “reported.” Oh man, absolutely yes and it happens more often than you think. 

All that to say, there is smoke here and this could develop to the point where Atlanta and Palmeiras make a deal. There are also plenty of reasons to think that it’s unlikely that happens.

Unless Araujo is behind the scenes asking for a return to Brazil, Atlanta has no real reason to send him along. The club doesn’t need the money. And, as of now, they don’t need to give up on Araujo.

Folks may understandably bristle at that. In 2022, Araujo put together what can objectively be called the least productive DP performance since the first three years of Ezequiel Barco’s time in MLS. Araujo scored just four times last season across 2200 minutes. He did add six assists, but after putting together a four-goal, four-assist half-season in 2021, it would be fair to call that output extremely disappointing, especially for a 26-year-old DP who played significant minutes. 

At least Barco had the excuse of injuries and age, eventually coming good for a seven-goal, eight-assist year in 2021. Even Pity Martinez, who earned a lot of the criticism levied against him, put up five goals and nine assists in 2200 minutes during his only full season in Atlanta. 

There’s no way around it. 2022 was atrocious for Araujo and an altogether miserable year for the team that seemed to enter a feedback loop of injuries, errors and bad soccer. 

But hear me out. I know and understand why folks may be wanting the Five Stripes to jump at a potential Palmeiras offer to recoup Atlanta’s investment in Araujo. But, and remember I said “hear me out," what if he’s set to be a best XI-caliber player this season?

A brief vibes-based analysis

Before I get into the actual analysis, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention a couple of things. First off, besides Miguel Almiron and Josef Martinez, Luiz Araujo is the most talented player I’ve seen up close and in person at an Atlanta United practice. He repeatedly pulls things off that have a bunch of grumpy beat writers looking at each other with big eyes and grumbling questions about why he can’t do the same during games. There is absolutely no shortage of talent when Araujo has the ball at his feet. 

I should also add that, sometimes, it takes a moment for talent to come through in MLS. There’s a reason so many players don’t begin to thrive in the league until their second season in the league. Well, technically, we’re entering Araujo’s second full season in the league this year. There’s still time for a Hany Mukhtar or Sebastian Driussi-esque Year Two bump.

I know, I know. “Trust me” and “what about” aren’t great data points. But I’m about to throw a lot of those at you in just a second and think the vibes-based things provide a worthy framework to build on. Just keep those things in mind while we dive into the numbers. 

You gotta pick your spots (and you gotta run to them)

It’s encouraging and concerning how identifiable Araujo’s problems are. It’s encouraging because it makes those problems appear correctable and concerning because it makes you wonder why those correctable problems haven’t been corrected yet. I lean towards holding out hope on these though. In large part because of the company Araujo keeps statistically and because of a revamped Atlanta United attacking front. 

Let’s review.

Here are the MLS players who led the league in shots from open play last season.

1. Hany Mukhtar - 98 shots, 15 goals

2. Chicho Arango - 88 shots, 13 goals

3. Luiz Araujo - 87 shots, four goals

4. Jeremy Ebobisse - 83 shots, 12 goals

5. Sebastian Driussi - 82 shots, 16 goals

6. Jesus Ferreira - 77 shots, 15 goals

7. Chicharito - 76 shots, 15 goals

8. Brandon Vazquez - 76 shots, 18 goals

9. Cucho Hernandez (half a season) - 70 shots, 7 goals

10. Julian Carranza - 69 shots, 11 goals

11. Brenner - 65 shots, 15 goals

One of these things is very much not like the others. That’s already a long list, but I could keep going and you could keep seeing the biggest names in MLS have fewer shots and more goals than Araujo. So, what happened? Shot selection happened. 

Let’s do the same list but let’s add a data point. Keep in mind, the average shot in MLS is 0.10 xG. Basically, you can expect the average MLS shot to go in 10% of the time. 

1. Hany Mukhtar - 98 shots, 15 goals, 0.13 average expected goals per shot

2. Chicho Arango - 88 shots, 13 goals, 0.14 avg. xG/shot

3. Luiz Araujo - 87 shots, four goals, 0.08 avg. xG/shot

4. Jeremy Ebobisse - 83 shots, 12 goals, 0.14 avg. xG/shot

5. Sebastian Driussi - 82 shots, 16 goals, 0.12 avg. xG/shot

6. Jesus Ferreira - 77 shots, 15 goals, 0,16 avg. xG/shot

7. Chicharito - 76 shots, 15 goals, 0.16 avg. xG/shot

8. Brandon Vazquez - 76 shots, 18 goals, 0.18 avg. xG/shot

9. Cucho Hernandez (half a season) - 70 shots, 7 goals, 0.07 avg. xG/shot 

10. Julian Carranza - 69 shots, 11 goals, 0.13 avg. xG/shot

11. Brenner - 65 shots, 15 goals, 0.14 avg. xG/shot

Obviously, it’s not surprising to see the list populated mostly with strikers and it’s not surprising to see those strikers taking shots from better positions. It’s easier to get closer to the goal when you’re closer to goal more often. 

And, of course, it’s not as simple as saying, “Well, there you go, all he has to do is get closer!” If everyone could do that, they would do it. 

But that doesn’t change the fact that Araujo is actively finding chances. The question is whether bad shot selection is just who he is as a player or if he’s simply had bad shot selection thrust upon him by circumstance. 

The answer, as always, is somewhere in the middle. During his time with Lille, Araujo posted similar xG/shot numbers. In his first season with the club in 2017, he checked in with a bang average 0.10 xG/shot. From there, it generally got worse. In his final season with the club, he posted an abysmal 0.07 xG/shot and a 30th-percentile average shot distance. 

There’s no denying it. He loves a shot from deep. 

There’s also no denying that he hasn’t consistently done the off-ball work that would allow him to get into better scoring positions. Per Second Spectrum tracking data, the list of players who made the most runs defined as “challenging the opponent’s back line” includes a number of players on our shots list (and 11th place Derrick Etienne Jr!). Meanwhile, Araujo ranks 153rd in the league. 

He tries to balance that out with his tremendous dribbling ability. Araujo finished in the 98th percentile in completed dribbles last season, and finished in the 89th percentile in carries into the penalty area. However, that only put him in the 78th percentile in total touches in the penalty area. More off-ball runs, especially runs in behind, would supplement the quality of chances he finds. 

However, it’s important to consider the context behind Araujo’s 2022. If you consider Araujo’s numbers were aided by a team riddled with injuries and a team consistently facing teams sitting in a low block and team with a mismatched puzzle of attacking pieces, it starts to feel more understandable that shots from high-quality positions became difficult to find. 

It wasn’t just Araujo

If I had extended the lists from the last section just a few spots, we would have reached the player with the 13th-most shots in MLS last year, Atlanta United’s Thiago Almada. Almada took 61 shots last season. His avg. xG/shot came in at … 0.08, the same exact average as Araujo. 

Almada scored one more goal than Araujo last year despite taking a near-equal number of shots from outside the box. That’s in part because he took a few more shots closer to the penalty arc than Araujo’s preferred launching pad of just outside the right corner of the 18-yard box. 

Almada and Araujo’s roles are different of course, but it feels unlikely that neither is capable of getting into quality scoring positions. Their average xG/shot is one of two big indications that pieces of the setup and circumstances around Atlanta’s attack were off last season. 

The second is the fact that Atlanta’s strikers didn’t exist. I mean, they were there on the field, of course, but they weren’t involved in the game. All three strikers that took the field last year for Atlanta had near league-low touch percentages in the attacking third. Basically, among starting strikers, Josef Martinez got on the ball in the attacking third the second least, while Ronaldo Cisneros touched the ball the third least. 

When you pair what essentially became a black hole at striker with no true help for Araujo on the opposite wing, you get a disjointed and unbalanced attack that allows teams to sit and force bad shots without much worry. Could Araujo have been better? Of course. But there’s no reason to pretend he woke up and decided he wanted to shoot from outside the box more. 

We’re a lot of words into this, can you explain why this is going to get fixed?

I can’t guarantee it. But based on what we’ve discussed, there’s plenty of reason to be optimistic. Starting with a simple take: Atlanta United should be much better. 

At the very least, the attacking front should be much improved and far more balanced. No more Almada and Marcie Moreno occupying the same spaces, no more wondering if it's even worth trying to pass the ball to the striker, no more two-man army of Araujo and Almada (plus Andrew Gutman) going head-on into a wall.

With the addition of Derrick Etienne Jr. and Giorgos Giakoumakis, the Atlanta attack has the potential to be the most balanced and effective front four we’ve seen since Martinez-Asad-Almiron-Villalba. Etienne will be a breath of fresh air as he actively makes runs in behind from the wing. Giakoumakis should be the first DP-caliber striker Atlanta has had since Josef tore his ACL. That means more options and much more space for Almada and Araujo. Things should inherently improve across the board. 

Natural improvement isn’t the only reason to be optimistic though. It’s not like I’m the only one who’s aware of Araujo’s shot-selection problems. Araujo is aware of the issue and being asked to adjust.

“Yes, we talked about it. I showed him some data and some video at the end of the season and he agrees,” Atlanta United manager Gonzalo Pineda said. “He is happy to improve. He looks different this year. He looks like in 2021 when he had a fresh start and he just wanted to do well. And he did well in the first four months with Atlanta for five months. So I see the same type of Luiz. 

“And yes we're working on that," Pineda added. "Still, I want him to shoot because he's actually good but probably limit a little bit the areas where he can shoot and the timing of when he can shoot and also see other options, always have more ambition to see other killer passes or other situations where he can maybe dribble and get into deeper areas into the box. We're working on that, but overall, Luiz's attitude for this year is very, very good. He's been training so far very, very good. And I like that.” 

If you don’t believe Pineda that Araujo is actively working on taking better shots, would you believe Araujo?

“That's something that Gonzalo has talked about," Araujo said through a translator. "And there were games where we took shots from outside the box and we want to be able to take more shots from inside the box and I think the more shots on goal that we have, then the more goals we're going to score." 

“I think that's one of my characteristics is to be able to take those long shots sometimes, but I've watched some videos with Gonzalo and seen some of the shots that I was taking and that's something that I'm working on now. The thing is to always try and help my team but yes, that's what we're talking about.”

There’s a big difference between understanding your problems and correcting them. However, just imagine a moment a world where Araujo, thanks to an improved mentality and more space to operate, consistently finds the ball at his feet in more dangerous areas. Trust me when I say that version of Araujo has the talent to be one of the most productive wingers and one of the most productive players in the league. 

So, should they sell him?

Is potentially missing out on that version of Araujo worth bailing on him now just to recoup your initial investment and start over again when you already have a puzzle piece that fits? I don’t think so. At least not right now. 

If come summertime, he still hasn’t put it together, then maybe the secondary window will provide an option to move him along. But the numbers, the personnel, the active correction happening and my gut suggest that I might be breaking this article out after every few goals just to remind folks where we were when the season started.