As the FC Dallas' front office evaluates its defensive core this offseason, their approach may be as simple as this: If it ain't broke, don't fix it.
Last season, Dallas allowed 37 goals in 34 regular-season matches, posting the best mark in the Western Conference and completing a remarkable turnaround after allowing a conference-worst 56 the season before.
And FCD did it without a complete personnel overhaul. The center-back pairing of Jose Martinez and Matt Hedges remained the same, and right back Ema Twumasi won the starting job in 2022 after spending most of the previous season at that spot. And FCD signed goalkeeper Maarten Paes, who won the starting job in preseason and never let go, becoming one of the best shot-stoppers in MLS.
But questions about Hedges' future with the club and a new player already added are proof that nothing stays exactly the same from season to season. So it's worth wondering what subtle or not so subtle changes FCD's back line will weather, and if those could actually improve upon one of the best defensive seasons in club history.
How good was the defense last season?
FCD had a great goals-against record, but how much of that was Paes coming up big in important spots?
Looking at the stats, FCD had just eight clean sheets compared to the 15 that MLS-best Philadelphia Union managed. That number puts FCD in a tie for 12th in the league. When FCD conceded, though, it avoided being blown out.
FCD also limited what made it through to Paes, closing the year with 133 shots on target against. Just six clubs, all of them in the Eastern Conference, managed to allow fewer.
Digging deeper, we can look at Post-Shot Expected Goals, which looks at how likely a goalkeeper is to stop a shot based on the quality of the shot allowed. Here, Paes stands out with the fourth-best mark in the league at 38.6. The Post-Shot Expected Goals per Shots on Target, where FCD logged the third-best mark in the league, hints that FCD did a good job keeping the toughest of shots from reaching Paes' net, and when they did come at him, he often was able to make a stop.
While FCD needs to do a better job allowing goals in fewer games next season, the actual behavior on the field was a significant improvement from 2021 and something the team should want to replicate in manager Nico Estévez's second year.
Will Matt Hedges return?
He's a club legend. He's the captain. And he was a pretty great defender last season. But with FCD not picking up Matt Hedges' contract option, the 32-year-old visiting other MLS clubs during free agency and FCD signing a new center back Monday, the tea leaves aren't exactly reading like Hedges will be return.
Maybe this is part of MLS growing up. Fans in the other big North American pro sports are used to the jarring image of legends wearing the 'wrong' jersey at the end of their careers as the teams they made their legacy move on to a new project that doesn't fit their style or their contract demands. Followers of the NBA will remember Tony Parker in a Hornets jersey, Dwyane Wade with the Bulls or Michael Jordan on the Wizards.
But maybe it's just a big mistake. Hedges doesn't have many more years left as a high-level professional, but he was the team's best defender last season.
His 122 clearances land him in the top 10 in the league individually, and he also was above average in blocks and the number of duels he won in the air.
More critical, though, was the number of touches he had, the way he steered both the defense and started the build at the back and passed at a level that wasn't extraordinary but was above average. Moving on from Hedges now feels like a mistake for far more than the emotional reasons that has most fans praying he returns.
As we reported yesterday, there's still a chance Hedges comes back. Dallas' front office should do what it can to make that happen. If it doesn't, it will need to sign FCD's 'next great center back' and have him perform from Day 1.
Get deeper
One reason FCD's defense improved in 2022 is health.
Hedges and Martinez both dealt with frustrating injuries in 2021, and while there were various knocks and bothers during the 2022 campaign, both were able to get on the field much more. Martinez nearly doubled the number of games he started, going from 16 starts in 2021 to 31 last season and registering 2,627 minutes in his sophomore MLS season. Hedges appeared in 30 games after appearing in 20 in 2021.
While Nkosi Tafari continues to grow and push for a starting role, having a good third and fourth center back is becoming more of a need than a want in MLS. Just ask FCD's most recent addition Sebastien Ibeagha. As LAFC's third center back, Ibeagha ended up playing in 17 regular season matches and two playoff games - including starting and going the distance in the MLS Cup final.
Tafari actually played slightly more than Ibeagha last year, coming into more matches as a late-game lockdown specialist. If Hedges does come back, FCD is set at center back, but another depth fullback option needs to arrive. In theory, that could be Twumasi if FCD finds a new right back starter (see the next section).
It's also worth remembering that what's happening in central midfield has a big-time knock-on effect. A platoon between Facundo Quignon and Edwin Cerrillo developed last year, but a middle-of-the-park stopper would go a long way toward keeping pressure of Paes and the back line.
Right back ripe for upgrade - again
FC Dallas already tried to replace converted winger Ema Twumasi as the right back once. The club signed Nanu on loan from Porto, but once he arrived it became evident why the Portuguese power had put him on the market.
A bit of a defensive liability who ended up providing too little going forward to justify the risk, Nanu ended up starting just 11 matches, logging 1,184 minutes in 27 appearances.
He clearly wasn't a player FCD wanted to spend another season paying the nearly $700,000 he was guaranteed in 2022, nor did it want to trigger a high-dollar option to buy at the end of the loan.
So, Nanu is no longer in North Texas. But another right back could be.
The team saw the consistency it got from Marco Farfan at left back, as he went from an MLS depth player to a U.S. national team candidate this season under Estévez. So, too, did opponents. It was no accident many clubs' game plans featured overloading FCD's right side and challenging Twumasi to stop them. After a rough start to the season, he grew into the role. Still, there's an opportunity to once again try to find a right back on the market who can be better defensively and, if FCD is getting greedy, work better with Paul Arriola further up the flank.