Five things to look for in the United States' must-win match against Iran

In two 2022 World Cup group stage matches to date, the U.S. men’s national team has showcased a surprisingly stout defense and an unsurprisingly stymied offense in two draws against British teams. After drawing Wales 1-1 and playing England to a scoreless draw, the Yanks’ fortunes will ride on Tuesday’s match against Iran. That match already has a bit more of a heated dynamic than it normally would, thanks to some social media activity you wouldn’t expect — a bit more on that later — and the math is refreshingly uncomplicated. 

If the U.S. wins, it advances to the Round of 16, most likely against the Group A winner, which is likely a Netherlands team that’s looking vulnerable. If the U.S. draws or loses, their 2022 World Cup is over. 

Of the four Concacaf teams, the U.S. is arguably in the best shape. Canada’s already been knocked out after two losses, and while Mexico and Costa Rica have stayed alive, Mexico’s path requires a win plus some help, while Costa Rica faces Germany and has a win but also a -6 goal differential which could prove decisive. 

Looking ahead to Tuesday’s match, here’s what to look for. 

Will Jesus appear? 

In the two matches the USMNT has played, head coach Gregg Berhalter has done with a combination of Josh Sargent and Haji Wright up top. That hasn’t been terribly productive — winger Tim Weah has the Yanks’ lone goal, and in the match against England, it was Christian Pulisic and Weston McKennie who mustered the best chances. 

Against Iran, likely to go into a low block against the U.S., it might take more creativity than crossing to a tall forward, and Jesús Ferreira might be the catalyst needed to generate more and better chances. While he’s had a tapering off in form of late, he still did put together an MVP-caliber season for FC Dallas and contributed to World Cup qualifying. Though he might not start, Berhalter will likely call his number before the tournament ends, particularly if the U.S. is in a need of a goal late. 

Will subs come in time? 

Arguably, Berhalter’s subs have all come too late to have the desired effect. 

Against Wales, Brenden Aaronson came in for McKennie around minute 65, while Wright spelled Sargent, DeAndre Yedlin subbed in for Sergino Dest, and Kellyn Acosta covered for Yunus Musah around minute 75. Of those subs, the most impactful was arguably Acosta, committing a late professional foul that kept Gareth Bale from engineering a late-match winner. 

Against England, Gio Reyna made his World Cup debut against England in the 83rd minute — adding to the bizarre “is he hurt or is Berhalter just keeping him out” sideshow that’s become part of the team’s 2022 World Cup narrative. That was part of a double sub following another 77th minute double sub, and while all the changes were prudent, the players brought in never really had a chance to make their marks. 

If the U.S. isn’t ahead by minute 60, I’ll be joining many concerned folks eyeing activity around Berhalter and the bench as much as TV will allow. 

Will it be a spirited affair? 

Social media’s adding to what we’ve dubbed Geopolitical Intrigue between U.S. and Iran — uneasy adversaries who faced off in a critical 1998 World Cup match with memories of the Iran Hostage Crisis still firmly fixed. 

U.S. Soccer’s Twitter account displayed the Iran flag without the Emblem of Iran — and its religious messaging — on Sunday while teasing Tuesday’s match. As reported by MLSSoccer.com’s Charles Boehm, USMNT press officer Michael Kammarman noted, “The intent of the post was to show support for women's rights, it was meant to be a moment.” He added, “We made the posts at the time, all the other representations of the flag remain consistent, and will continue to.”Meanwhile, the Tasmin News Agency, Iran’s state media, is reporting that the Iranian Football Federation will file a complaint against U.S. Soccer for the slight. The Tasmin News Agency account’s English-language Twitter banner shows a burning American flag and the slogan, “We are the superpower,” so that’s unsubtle.

If that weren’t enough, former U.S. coach Jurgen Klinsmann made controversial comments on BBC Sport which some contended disparaged Iranian athletes …

… including Iranian coach Carlos Queiroz, who took to Twitter to write an open letter to Klinsmann. 

And then, Tyler Adams fielded a hot potato of a question from an Iranian journalist expertly on Monday. 

My favorite part is where he said, “It’s a process and as long as you see progress, that’s the most important thing.” He’s been a phenomenal captain on and off the pitch. 

Will Ream feature? 

Tim Ream’s been a more-than-adequate center back partner for Walker Zimmerman so far this tournament, filling the Miles Robinson-sized hole in the back line that emerged when he injured his Achilles’ tendon in May. In two matches, he’s accounted well for himself and contributed to a great defensive effort. (In case you need a happy reminder of how the tournament’s going, the U.S. has yet to give up a goal from open play, and it was a Zimmerman foul that allowed for the only goal against the Yanks so far. 

Berhalter seems to be very much in “if it ain’t broke” mode this World Cup, so I’d expect Ream to start, though he’s one of four U.S. players on a yellow (along with Acosta, Dest, and McKennie) — and a yellow in any match through the quarterfinals results in a one-match suspension. While Cameron Carter-Vickers or Aaron Long have yet to be pressed into action this World Cup, that could happen in the Round of 16. (Should, of course, the U.S. get that far.) Again, it’s win or you’re in. 

How many will watch?

A remarkable number of people, no doubt in part due to Black Friday creating an ideal match-watching holiday, tuned in to see the U.S. face England. Between Fox’s English broadcast and Telemundo’s Spanish broadcast, nearly 20 million U.S. viewers caught the match against England, which U.S. Soccer just went ahead and claimed. 

As the tweet said, U.S. Soccer is challenging that to be topped on Tuesday. That’s possibly not going to happen, given that people have to work at their jobs, but it’s also an elimination game — which have been similarly robust in past similar situations. Of course, should the U.S. get past Iran, the Round of 16 match will be either at 10 a.m ET on Saturday or 2 p.m. ET on Sunday … setting up for another potential record-breaking audience.         

Many American fans on Tuesday will want nothing more than a weekend date with their team.