How to bet on the 2022 FIFA World Cup winner, top scorer, MVP and more

If you've paid any attention at all to the sport of soccer as a human, you're already aware that the approaching 2022 FIFA World Cup will be the most watched sporting event on the planet this year.

And in the new era of legalized sports gambling across much of the United States, many American fans are about to find out it is also the most heavily bet spectacle.

Last month for The Striker, in partnership with The Daily Dot, we covered that aspect from the 30,000-foot view. But now it's time to dive a little deeper into where those inclined to place a few wagers might want to put their money.

Here's a look at some betting angles for the overall tournament winner, the top scorer and best player and teams to win or advance from their groups. And before Yanks fans get too upset: The omission of the U.S. national team from this piece doesn't represent a prediction of doom for the USMNT, only that in the particular bets we're looking at, the odds the Americans are being given don't present a lot of value.

(All odds are from DraftKings. This is not an endorsement of DraftKings as a sportsbook of choice, but they are widely distributed across the U.S. with a relatively user-friendly app/website.)

To Win the 2022 FIFA World Cup

Here's the top 12 favorites to lift the trophy, which includes every team to reach a World Cup final since Czechoslovakia lost 3-1 to Brazil in the 1962 title game.

Generally speaking, history suggests any team outside this dozen is not a realistic play, even as a hedge for a team you think has a deep run to the semifinals in them. (Yes, this includes the USMNT, Fox World Cup ad campaigns not withstanding.)

Odds of +350 reflect that a bettor who would make a $100 wager would make $350 in profit if their bet wins.

Odds to win the World Cup

• Brazil (+350)
• Argentina (+500)
• France (+700)
• Spain (+850)
• England (+900)
• Germany (+1000)
• Netherlands (+1100)
• Portugal (+1600)
• Belgium (+1800)
• Denmark (+2200)
• Uruguay (+4000)
• Croatia (+5000)

Best Bets

Brazil (+350): Yes, this is a price that has been dropping, and is very chalky. But historically speaking, this is exactly the kind of World Cup Brazil wins, for two reasons:

1. It's not being held in Brazil
2. It's not being held in Europe

Teams from elsewhere across the globe tend to perform better in non-European World Cups, perhaps because the crowd support is more of an even playing field. And for Brazil, playing as a host nation has often been as much curse as blessing, given the enormous expectations of the Brazilian population.

When you look at the eight tournaments held somewhere other than Europe or Brazil, The Selecao have won four (!!!) of them: Chile 1962, Mexico 1970, USA 1994 and Korea-Japan 2002. They're also two-time Olympic champions, reflecting a deep half-decade of U-23 talent that has now matured into the first team to support star man Neymar.

Denmark (+2200): Will the Danes win the World Cup? It's unlikely. But as the No. 10 ranked team on the planet, they definitely have enough talent to take the European dark horse mantle from Croatia and make a run to the semifinals. Then there's the added boost of Christian Eriksen's return to a major international tournament only 17 months after his traumatic cardiac arrest on the field in Euro 2020.

Even though defending World Champions France are in Denmark's group, the Danes still have one of the easier paths to the round of 16 with Tunisia and Australia rounding out Group D. Given France's .500 World Cup record against African sides this millennium, it's not hard to see the Danes finishing top and avoiding a second-round clash with Argentina.

If they get to even the quarters at +2200 odds, that's something a good bettor can hedge against pretty effectively from there.

To Win the Golden Boot

Unlike the World Cup winners futures market, the market for the tournament's top scorer is historically far more wide open. Only two of the winners in the last 40 years have come from the team that wins the tournament — Italy's Paolo Maldini in 1982 and Brazil's Ronaldo in 2002 — and there has never been a back-to-back winner.

We'll abstain from listing all the contenders here, since so many have at least a puncher's chance. But that latter bit of history may be bad news for bettors on 2018 Golden Boot winner Harry Kane, who is slim favorite at +700 odds.

Best Bets

Lautaro Martinez, Argentina (+1800): The Inter Milan striker is only available at this price because of who his teammate is -- seven-time ballon d'Or winner Lionel Messi.

But while Messi is available at +1000 odds, each man scored seven times in CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying and Martinez did so in many fewer minutes and without taking any penalties.

With Argentina looking at trying to win an entire World Cup in a 27-day span, it feels likely that Martinez could play more minutes in Qatar than his No. 10 counterpart. In particular, Messi's time early could easily be cut with an eye toward the knockout phase if the Albiceleste is making easy work of Saudia Arabia, Poland or Mexico during their Group C games.

Memphis Depay, Netherlands (+2000): The Dutchman has battled injuries this fall, which is a major reason he is available so cheaply here. But if he plays anywhere close to 100%, he's an obvious value bet as the Netherlands' overwhelming scoring leader in World Cup qualifying.

In fact, his expected role as a substitute early in the tournament as he reacquires fitness might even help his cause, since the Netherlands are in one of the easiest groups of the tournament with Qatar, Ecuador and Senegal. Those are all the kind of opponents who could be susceptible to conceding multiple goals late, especially if they fall behind and must stray from their initial defensive posture.

To win the Golden Ball

Forecasting the Golden Ball winner involves as much psychology as statistics, because it is based partly on individual performance, partly on team expectation, partly on reputation, and partly on sentimentality.

For example, 2018 Golden Ball winner Luka Modric was certainly worthy of the award. But it also helped significantly that he was on a Croatian side that significantly overachieved their expectations. Had he had the same performance in a French or Belgian national team jersey, it may not have had the same impact.

Similarly, Lionel Messi won the 2014 Golden Ball despite a mixed tournament overall in Argentina's run to the final, because much of the public so badly wanted to celebrate him given the enormous pressure saddled upon him via Diego Maradona's legacy.

Also, the last player to win the World Cup and Golden Ball in the same tournament? Brazil's Romario at USA '94.

Best Bet

Neymar, Brazil (+900): Messi is bookmakers' favorite here, but the 30-year-old Neymar is second, is closer to his prime and has the deeper team.

If Brazil win it all it will be extremely hard not to give it to the Paris St. Germain star, or even if they make the final and he's their most important player. Which he probably will be, even on that loaded roster.

To win or advance from their group

While most of the focus in the mainstream media centers around who will win the whole tournament, skilled bettors are often looking for good prices on teams to either top their groups or finish in the top two.

We won't list odds for all eight groups here, but as an example, here are the odds for the US men's national team and their opponents in group B. Also, this is the first time we're dealing with odds that include less-than-even-money wagers. A price of -280 odds represents that a bettor must wager $280 to make $100 in profit.

Odds to win Group B

• England (-280)
• USA (+500)
• Wales (+500)
• Iran (+1600)

Odds to advance from Group B

• England (-1200)
• USA (-105)
• Wales (+100)
• Iran (+350)

Best Bets

Qatar to qualify from Group A (+350): There doesn't seem to be much awareness in the betting market that the host nation are also the defending Asian champions. That's no small shakes in what is arguably the most improved region in world football in the last two decades, and even if that triumph did come at home, guess what? They're playing at home again now.

They received a kind Group A draw with Senegal and Ecuador in their group, and by the time they face the Netherlands, the Dutch might have already secured passage to the Round of 16 and rotate some or much of their squad. 

Denmark to win Group D (+225): Group mates France are notoriously slow starters and also face an emotionally charged game against former colonial territory Tunisia.

And Denmark is likely to have some of that hard-to-quantify intangible good juju with the Christian Eriksen story we discussed earlier. Plus he's their best player and in form, within a roster that has a bit of a Golden Generation feel to it. Odds that imply a less than one-third chance of winning the group are too good to pass up here.

Germany to win Group E (+115): Yes, this is not the strongest German side in recent memory. And yes, they're in a group with Spain, who have been installed as slight favorites. But ask yourself, which team do you trust to defeat the teams it is supposed to defeat, especially from other defeats? 

It's very obviously Germany, who won 70% of their UEFA qualifiers by multiple goals compared to Spain, which won only 37.5% of theirs by two or more. That makes the latter more susceptible to the odd unlucky draw or two that makes the difference between a first- and second-place finish.

Canada to advance from Group F (+275): Yes, it's our northern neighbors' first World Cup since 1986. But it's also blatantly clear from 14 games of Concacaf qualifying that at this moment, Canada is the most consistent and best team in the region.

They might not be the most talented, mind you, but they have a clearer identity than the United States or Mexico right now and perhaps more talent in the most important positions in attack. That's not so much about Bayern Munich left back Alphonso Davies as it is about Jonathan David, Cyle Larin and the latest up-and-coming youngster, Ismael Kone.

The reason they still sit 41st in the FIFA World Rankings is because those rankings are weighted heavily toward an extended time frame, one that doesn't adequately allow for correctly evaluating a roster that suddenly blossoms from obscurity.

And in a situation where every team (save for World Cup openers Qatar and Ecuador) are playing three group games in nine games, it helps that the two European powers they'll be facing have rosters whose starts are all on the older side.

Ian Quillen also handicaps Major League Soccer, the U.S. men's national team, Premier League and World Cup at The Action Network, an American betting website and app. You can find more of his betting-related work on the USMNT at the 2022 FIFA World Cup here.