2022 Player Reviews: Dom Dwyer vs. Ronaldo Cisneros

I had a realization during the middle of the season. Atlanta United had never been deeper at a backup striker. The problem is that all three of their strikers were playing at a backup level. A good backup level to be fair, but still backup level. 

Today, we’re going to change the format of our player reviews a little bit and make it a little less like a “review” and a little more like a Thunderdome. Two players are entering and ONLY ONE WILL MAKE IT OUT ALIVE. 

Kind of. It’s more metaphorical than anything. But I think it can lead us to an answer. In this case, the question is “Who should be Atlanta United’s backup striker next season?” Because let’s be clear, we are talking about backup strikers here.

With Martinez reportedly on his way out per The Athletic’s Felipe Cardenas and neither Dom Dwyer or Ronaldo Cisneros performing at a “Starting striker on an MLS Cup-caliber team” level, a top-shelf number nine should be a priority this offseason. 

In the end, the answer is very clear here. Very. But we might as well go through the motions and see what we learn about Atlanta’s production at striker in 2022, and what it might mean for the team going forward. 

Tale of the tape

Age

Dwyer: 32

Cisneros: 25

Overlying numbers

Dwyer: Four goals, no assists in 617 minutes and five starts

Cisneros: Seven goals and one assist in 1725 minutes and 23 starts

Underlying numbers

Contract situation

Dwyer: Senior minimum (no cap hit) through 2023 with two additional option years

Cisneros: $244,000 base salary, loan from Chivas set to end. Atlanta would need to buy or re-loan.

Let's talk about Dom Dwyer

Alright, just from the tale of the tape, you should have some idea where we’re going here. But let’s talk about each player’s season right quick.

A lot of folks bristled a Dwyer’s arrival in Atlanta. Not just because of his history with Orlando City but because of his recent production. There’s a reason Dwyer arrived in Atlanta on a senior minimum contract. Upon arriving in Atlanta, Dwyer hadn’t scored since 2019. In his 2021 season with Toronto, he made just six starts, created one assist and that’s it. To put it bluntly, the word being thrown around? “Washed.” 

However, Dwyer broke the goalless streak minutes into his Atlanta United debut and from there enjoyed a productive year as the team’s starting striker and leading Atlanta back to the playoffs. Wait, actually, nope hold on … OK, yep, I checked, he ended up only starting five games. 

That doesn’t mean he had a bad year. It just indicates to me how weird things got at striker for Atlanta. We talked about Martinez’s struggles earlier in the week, but Dwyer didn’t have quite the same issues when entered the game. In fact, Dwyer’s biggest issue may have been making clumsy fouls almost on cue with each appearance. But he did find other ways to make an impact on the games he played in. 

You know from the tale of the tape that Dwyer scored four times on the season, however that doesn’t illustrate exactly how effective his appearances were. Dwyer not only led Atlanta’s strikers in shots per 90, but the shots he took were far better on average. The average shot in MLS comes in at about 0.10 xG and Dwyer averaged 0.19 xG per chance. Martinez averaged 0.14 and Cisneros averaged 0.13. More shots from better spots over time is a really good way to outproduce your colleagues and on a per 90 basis Dwyer generally did. 

In large part, that comes down to Dwyer’s ability to get on the ball in the 18-yard-box. Even if none of Atlanta’s strikers contributed elsewhere, at least Dwyer at least did enough to get touches close to goal. 

Now, among strikers with more than 700 minutes, Dwyer came in dead last in the league in the percentage of his team’s touches he made. Martinez and Cisneros were last and second to last respectively among strikers with 1500 minutes played. In general, Atlanta’s strikers were almost completely useless. That’s due in part to their abilities and strengths, and in part due to the team’s abilities and strengths within a high-possession system that had a ton of flaws. But here’s the difference between the rest of the group and Dwyer.

• Martinez: 13th percentile in touches, 13th percentile in touches in the attacking third, 48th percentile in touches inside the 18-yard box

• Dwyer: 7th percentile in touches, 17th percentile in touches in the attacking third, 80th percentile in touches inside the 18-yard box

• Cisneros: 6th percentile in touches, 17th  percentile in touches in the attacking third, 57th percentile in touches inside the 18-yard box

That’s total touches by the way. We aren’t just looking at a team-influenced percentage. In general, Atlanta’s strikers simply didn’t get on the ball. However, Dwyer at least found a way to get the ball inside the penalty area, something Martinez and Cisneros failed to do at an above-average level. It’s part of the reason why Dwyer took shots from nearly two meters closer to the goal on average than both Martinez and Cisneros as well. 

Even if Dwyer wasn’t an all-around force, he at least provided a little more defensive work rate and production, plus movement within the 18-yard-box. Those are things that Atlanta sorely missed for most of the year and, in comparison, it feels odd that Cisneros and Martinez racked up the minutes they did.

Let's talk about Ronaldo Cisneros

Cisneros joined the team early in the year to provide reinforcement to a position led by Martinez (bad knee) and Dwyer (32 and hadn’t scored in two years). For a somewhat emergency loan signing, he turned out better than anyone could have expected. Cisneros scored seven times and racked up a decent chunk of xG along the way. 

He impressed folks early on with his speed and his willingness to make runs in behind, attributes that obviously caught the attention of Gonzalo Pineda and his staff. Cisneros started 23 games this season, making appearances at both striker and on the wing. 

All that being said, he really wasn’t all that good as a striker and may have been actually terrible on the wing. Cisneros scored his seven goals in just four of his 23 starts and generally didn’t produce otherwise. He has good high-end speed but doesn’t accelerate quickly or have the lateral movement within the box needed to create space for himself. And, in general, never performed well on the ball as a passer or dribbler, or off the ball as a defender.

So why did he get so many starts? Well, for one, movement does matter. No one will accuse Cisneros of being lazy. For a team that struggled to move off the ball in general, he felt like a breath of fresh air at the time. Considering the other options were Martinez (again, bad knee) and Dwyer (again, 32 and hadn’t scored in two years), the thought process isn’t hard to follow. 

You can’t help but wonder if there weren’t more creative options out there though. Perhaps Thiago Almada as a false nine? Luiz Araujo up top? Andrew Gutman??? 

Ok, maybe not Gutman. Although, I’m not sure how much I’m actually kidding about that. I’ll get back to y’all later.

At some point, it became clear that Cisneros simply wasn’t effective. Atlanta kept trying him anyway. By the time Dwyer took over as the starter with four games remaining, Atlanta were already doomed. To be fair though, Dwyer didn’t particularly cover himself in glory those last four starts. Remember, we’re talking about an entire unit of backup strikers here. 

Verdict

Look, it should be clear just from the contracts what the best course of action is here. It would take a little extra effort to bring Cisneros either back on loan or to buy him outright from Chivas. Even if he potentially comes on a free transfer, anything resembling what he made this season would be too much cost. Especially compared to Dwyer, who’s essentially free.

Not only free, but producing at a higher level. If Dwyer wants to stick around in Atlanta and be set to take on a first-attacker-off-the-bench kind of role, it should be his. He’s solid MLS value at this point. That’s something Atlanta have lacked across the board the last few years and never really had at striker.