Blind test time. No cheating.
Player A: 23 starts, 2138 minutes seven goals, eight assists.
Player B: 24 starts, 2033 minutes, four goals, five assists.
Which player are you taking? It’s obviously Player A, right?
One of these, as you probably guessed, is Luiz Araujo in 2022. And it’s not Player A. Player A is Ezequiel Barco in 2022.
Most folks were more than okay to see Barco go out on loan at the end of 2021. Despite career numbers, it became clear that he made the wrong decision with his passes too often, collected fouls in a way that broke up attacking chances rather than aided them, failed to stay healthy consistently and generally struggled to endear himself to the Atlanta United fan base.
So what does that mean for Araujo? Well, it’s complicated. But it certainly means that he’s performing far below expectations. And, considering his age and pedigree and the fact that he’s on a full DP contract, not just a young DP contract, he might be facing some of the vocal criticism that Barco faced throughout his time in Atlanta on an accelerated timeline.
It’s unlikely that he’ll be gone this offseason, but, in the same way that Gonzalo Pineda will likely need to be earning consistent results by next summer, it’s not crazy to think that Araujo may have until next summer’s transfer window to prove that he’s worth the spot he’s occupying.
However, that’s not what makes Araujo interesting. Plenty of DPs in MLS don’t match the total output fans and teams expect of them. Araujo just happens to be failing in spectacular fashion.
Not failing spectacularly. Failing in spectacular fashion. He’s not slipping off the diving board and concussing himself as he hits his head during the fall. He’s jumping off the diving board with grace, executing the kinds of flips and twists few can do in mid-air, and belly-flopping.
I can explain further. I promise. I can even go beyond “he’s clearly one of the two or three most talented players on the field in every single game.” Which is true, but ends up being kind of vague in the end.
Araujo is second in MLS in shots from open play. Generally, this is great news. Shots are a precious commodity in soccer. At a base level, the players who get more shots are more likely to score. But something is off with Araujo. Here are the league leaders in shots from open play (no set pieces, no penalties) this season, and the number of goals they’ve scored.
Hany Mukhtar - 92 shots (15 goals)
Luiz Araujo - 81 shots (4 goals)
Jeremy Ebobisse - 77 shots (11 goals)
Cristian Arango - 75 shots (13 goals)
Brandon Vazquez - 65 shots (15 goals)
Jesus Ferreira - 64 shots (15 goals)
Chicharito - 63 shots (12 goals)
Sebastian Driussi - 63 shots (14 goals)
That’s phenomenal company. There are MVP candidates and genuine stars here. Then there’s Araujo with at least seven fewer goals than everyone else.
It might seem as simple as labeling Araujo a “bad finisher” and moving on. There are a few problems with that though. First off, the idea that a player is a “good” or “bad” finisher has been largely disproven. There are a few generational cases — Lionel Messi routinely outperforms the chances he gets compared to the average human while someone like the LA Galaxy’s Kevin Cabral has been missing the net at an otherworldly level the past two seasons — but most players fall within the largest part of the bell curve when it comes to finishing. They score roughly as many goals as the chances they find suggest they should be scoring.
So to properly assess Araujo, we have to look at the chances he’s finding. And folks, those chances are not great.
Despite being second in the league in shots, Araujo’s total expected goals numbers are 21st in the league. That’s because Araujo’s average shot quality is abysmal. The average shot taken in MLS checks in at about 0.10 xG. Essentially, each shot has about a 10% chance to go in. Araujo’s average shot this season has come in at 0.08 xG, well below average and an outlier among the league’s most prolific shot takers.
Hany Mukhtar - 15 goals, avg. shot quality of 0.13 xG
Luiz Araujo - 4 goals, avg. shot quality of 0.08 xG
Jeremy Ebobisse - 11 goals, avg. shot quality of 0.14 xG
Chicho Arango - 13 goals, avg. shot quality of 0.14 xG
Brandon Vazquez - 15 goals, avg. shot quality of 0.17 xG
Jesus Ferreira - 15 goals, avg. shot quality of 0.17 xG
Chicharito - 12 goals, avg. shot quality of 0.16 xG
Sebastian Driussi - 14 goals, avg. shot quality of 0.13 xG
Now, the caveat here is that Araujo is a winger when the majority of this group are strikers. At the same time, it’s a good illustration of why Araujo hasn’t turned into a superstar-caliber player. It’s not all that surprising to see him at only four goals despite all those shots when his total xG only adds up to about 6.7 xG on the season. And it makes sense that he’d underperform that xG when the majority of his shots are below average quality. 58 of his 81 shots from open play had below-average odds of finding the net, the highest mark in the league.
Araujo's struggles also end up being a microcosm of Atlanta United’s struggles to find the net consistently this season. Atlanta leads the league in shots from open play but the Five Stripes are just 20th in overall shot quality. They’re third in expected goals from open play but just 11th in goals scored. And, to be fair to him, Araujo isn’t the lone culprit here. Among players who have taken 40 or more shots from open play, Marcelino Moreno has the lowest average shot quality in the league at 0.5 xG per shot. Thiago Almada is right there with Araujo at 0.08 xG. Ronaldo Cisneros is the only saving grace for Atlanta here with 42 shots and average shot quality of 0.13 xG.
Moreno and Almada get a bit more leeway at this point though. Moreno has been all but frozen out of the team entirely at this point and only has 18 starts on the season, yet his two goals and seven assists are enough to match Aruajo’s nine goal contributions on the season. Plus, Moreno isn’t a DP.
Almada is a DP, but even with an equally rough average shot quality, he still has six goals compared to Araujo’s four. And on 25 fewer shots. Not to mention 11 assists compared to Araujo’s five.
But let’s stay focused on the goals. The reasons behind Almada’s relative shooting success compared to Araujo can actually tell us a lot about Aruajo’s struggles.
We’ve talked in the past about Zone 14, but a quick refresher: Zone 14 is the area on the pitch just outside the 18-yard box in the center of the field. It’s a point of focus for a lot of analytics folks simply because good teams get the ball there more often than bad teams — which makes sense, considering the leverage an attacking player has in Zone 14, thanks to the options they have from an area where they can shoot at either side of the net or play the ball to any part of the penalty area.
Araujo’s 41 shots from outside the box are tied for the most in the league. Only 15 of those have come from Zone 14. Meanwhile, Almada has taken 35 shots from outside the box this year. 28 of those have come from Zone 14. Araujo has scored just once from outside the box, while Almada has done it three times, the second-highest total in the league. The lesson there (and for this whole article really) is don’t shoot from outside the box if you can help it. But if you’re going to do it, do it from an area where it can actually have an impact.
If you don’t believe me, have a look at Araujo’s lowest xG shots of the season and see just how very few of them even remotely bother the keeper. Then keep in mind that he’s essentially done this 36 times this season.
Compare those shots to Araujo’s highest xG chances and you’ll see a stark difference. It’s not surprising of course, but it is a reminder of how effective he can be when he gets into quality positions. Like I said, the on-ball talent isn’t in question here.
Most of those key chances come in transition. That’s generally the case for most high xG chances, but it’s a hint at why Araujo has struggled to find the ball in quality positions with regularity. It’s hard to receive the ball in critical areas without 10 defenders in front of you when you don’t move into those areas.
In Matt Doyle’s recent column for MLSsoccer.com, explaining what each 22 Under 22 selection needed to improve on before becoming a bonafide star, he wrote this about NYCFC’s talented winger Talles Magno.
“As per Second Spectrum, he’s in the first percentile (as in, the bottom 1%) of off-ball attacking runs per possession league-wide over the past two years, ahead of only Luiz Araujo.”
The only guy making fewer attacking runs in possession moments is a 25-year-old DP who should know better than the kid on the 22 Under 22 list. Or should, in my opinion, have been told how to do better over and over until it was internalized.
I asked Pineda last week about Araujo’s shot selection. He seemed conflicted.
“Well, he's a talented player. At times, it's hard for me to tell them not to do things that I feel they are capable of doing. So yes, we talk about certain things, certain patterns, certain movements that he can do. I think when he plays on the left, that kind of limits a little bit those diagonals from right to left when he plays on the right and he tends to go there,” Pineda said.
“But I mean," he continued, "I hate to tell talented players that they can’t shoot from certain areas because they are good. If I tell the same to Thiago, like, Thiago was fantastic shooting from outside the other day with a big goal at the end of the game, shooting from distance. So, at times, you're just feeling the game. And yes, we've talked about those things with the players and we said, okay, which are the best areas to shoot and in which scenarios? When you've been playing, you know that the game changes like this, so that you see the window and in the next half a second, two players block your vision and you already decided to shoot. So football changes every time in those parts in the final third. That's why it's so difficult to score goals, because you have to have quick decisions in quick moments in those parts of the field. And the players decide something and they go for it. So I hope he's going to score two good goals tomorrow from outside of the box and then we change that stat.”
Araujo did not score two good goals from outside the box. And even if he had, it would have put him just on par with Almada, who, again, has only scored three times on 28 shots from the best position outside the box that you can shoot from.
It’s understandable to want talented players to try and make things happen. But there’s a point where that strategy becomes detrimental to the team or , at least, elevates its worst tendencies. In Atlanta’s case, it’s indicative of a team that’s been far too ineffective too often with high numbers of possession. In Araujo’s case, it might be indicative of a player unable to change for the benefit of the team, himself and vice versa. This might just be the kind of player he is. There’s a reason he’s never scored more than five goals in a professional season.
— Tiotal Football (@TiotalFootball) September 14, 2022
That’s not to say personal growth is impossible. It just requires intrinsic understanding and outside motivation — even if you have to make it happen without blatantly explaining that it’s happening.
I think Pineda dropped a hint in his answer. “I think when he plays on the left, that kind of limits a little bit those diagonals from right to left when he plays on the right and he tends to go there.” Araujo has played on the left the last three games instead of taking his normal spot on the right wing. It’s a subtle adjustment that naturally cuts off his ability to move in on his left foot from the right and take the pot shots he’s becoming known for. And, yes, the numbers back that up.
In the small sample size of three games since he moved to the left, his average shot quality is 0.10. He’s back to league average! All while continuing to average his normal three shots per game.
By forcing him away from cutting inside, he’s forced to find chances elsewhere. And considering his talent, there’s a very high chance that if that trend continues, he’ll eventually start finding the net with a much higher level of consistency.
Because his shot selection is a performance art level of self-sabotage. Despite his output, Araujo is very, very, very good at soccer.
He’s sixth in the league this season in American Soccer Analysis’ all-encompassing metric, Goals Added. That’s all thanks to the fact that he’s the second-best dribbler in the league statistically, just behind Carles Gil He’s in the 99th percentile in dribbles completed and in the 91st in dribbling success rate. He burns people on the ball like few others can in this league.
On top of that, he’s been solid defensively in a way that a lot of folks (including me) don’t realize. Among attacking midfielders and wingers in MLS, he’s in the 84th percentile in tackles won, the 91st percentile in tackles won in the attacking third and the 99th percentile in successful pressures. He doesn’t press often because the Five Stripes as a team just don’t press often, but when he does, he’s shockingly effective.
And overall, his underlying numbers are good. He’s 27th in the league in non-penalty expected goals plus expected assists. Being the 27th-best attacker in the league isn’t a bad thing. But it’s clear that he has the potential to be a Best XI caliber player.
And overall, it’s not a bad thing that he’s an excellent dribbler. But when it’s the only thing you (and a majority of your attacking teammates) do well, you aren’t going to be nearly as effective.
Maybe it’s as simple as keeping him out on the left from the jump next season. Maybe it’s as simple as making him run a mile for every shot taken outside of the box. No matter what though, it’s clear that with a few corrections Araujo can grow into the kind of player most expected him to be in 2022. If it never happens, everyone involved should be disappointed.