We've seen how Austin FC could win in the playoffs, but now, we've also seen the blueprint for a playoff exit

I’m the type to look into the future and hash out various soccer scenarios based on what’s going on in the moment. On June 26 — right after the Union defeated NYCFC in a wild match, I asked Union head coach Jim Curtin in a post-match press conference to “indulge a scenario” based on the news of the day: “Let’s say you’re in MLS Cup this year — how do you game for Gareth Bale as part of an LAFC front three?” 

The question – which got a great answer that included Curtin complementing former teammate John Thorrington for his GM acumen building LAFC, but also snarking, “They’re getting a lot of good TAM players over there” — presupposed that LAFC and the Union would find themselves going chalk through the playoffs and meeting up as the respective No. 1 seeds from each conference. 

Then, Austin FC decided they’d interject themselves into the MLS Cup conversation, including a 4-1 statement win over LAFC at Q2 Stadium that made many around the league recognize that Verde was an MLS Cup contender, showing they could score in bursts as well as defend furiously against the Black & Gold’s vaunted attackers – including Bale. 

Since then, though, Austin FC’s lost by a combined margin of 5-1 in two weather-delayed matches against potential playoff matchups. The opponents in those two matches have shown the league a playbook for beating Verde as they’re currently constituted. Portland and Nashville were content to let Verde have a lot of the ball, put a force field around goal, defended primarily in a low block, and got opportunities on set pieces and out on transition. 

I’m sure that many Austin FC fans have envisioned what a home playoff match will look like, and despite the Sisyphean feat that actually getting an x next to Austin FC’s name seems to be, Austin should secure the No. 2 spot in the West if it can return to form in the coming weeks, given the relative chasm that still exists between Austin’s 51 points and the three bunched teams (FCD, Nashville and Minnesota) in the 44- to 46-point range right below them. 

If Austin gets to MLS Cup, it will look and sound like the best moments of its most electric home matches. Those home playoff matches might possibly roll on all the way through to the final if LAFC locks in the No. 1 see and then falters in its match against the winner of the No. 4/No. 5 contest. And if LAFC does indeed host Austin in a Western Conference final, we’ve already seen what Verde winning at the Banc looks like – it’s not hard to conjure up a vision of what that would look like. 

But in the last week, we’ve seen what can happen when teams seize upon the formula that makes Verde vulnerable. From that, it’s easy to see how Austin might match up against a team that can apply that formula successfully. The MLS playoffs are cruel, and teams that are “worthy” of MLS Cup – see last year’s record-setting Revs and complete-in-nearly-every-way Sounders – can be bounced on the way to two No. 4 seeds playing it smart en route to the final. 

Brad Stuver assessed the situation in last night’s post-match press conference with a veteran’s perspective and a coach-on-the-field’s diagnosis. Calling the last two matches “playoff-esque,” and noting that “we have to kind of get back to our identity of being a little bit stronger, a little bit more decisive,” Stuver mused on the two sides of the coin with Austin right now. 

On one hand, he noted, “These last two games have shown guys that don't really know MLS what an MLS playoff game looks like. The game against Portland and the game against Nashville are very playoff-esque games — very, very cautious at first, very high energy.

“And the ability to just grind out a result is something that we need to learn how to do. We need to get back to the idea that we're going to be tough to play against defensively, and we need to limit the amount of transition moments that we give up, and we just have to go into our defensive set pieces with a little bit more fire.” 

He still holds hope that they can shore up what needs to be shored up, though, observing, “For us, it's just continuing to learn from mistakes that we make and continuing to grow as a collective. This team has such high potential, and we have the ability to go extremely far in the playoffs. I have no doubt about that. But right now it's just in these next five games, it’s about buttoning up just little things that are causing little hiccups, and making sure that we're fine going into the final stretch of games.” 

Austin FC head coach Josh Wolff projected more confidence than concern in his post-match press conference on Saturday night, factoring in Nima Saghafi’s arguably sus refereeing and even taking a moment to make a dig at Club Deportes’ Jorge Iturralde for creating a video that mocked Julio Cascante for various defensive lapses he's made in what’s been — to be fair to Cascante — a reasonably and mostly solid season. 

He did, however, recognize the gravity of what’s to come as Austin tries to lock down its playoff place, starting with next week’s trip to a Sounders team battling to keep its impressive playoff streak — dating back to its inaugural MLS season in 2009 — alive. (It is, of course, a Sounders team that already has earned one major trophy this season, winning the Concacaf Champions League title that eluded 13 previous MLS finalists.)

“It doesn't get any easier,” Wolff noted. “It's challenging down the stretch … I've been in this league a while, so each week has its own pressures and each team is looking for their own position, whether it's to get inside the playoffs, gain home-field advantage, win a Supporters’ Shield … We're trying to get into the playoffs, like a lot of teams. So we’ve got to come with the right focus, we’ll give it a full week of training. Guys need to freshen up, and, obviously, it's been a taxing week.” 

Stuver noted that the combination of a full week of training leading up to the LAFC match, combined with the excitement of a nationally-televised match against the Supporters’ Shield leaders, helped Verde rise to the occasion and show their capabilities. 

The chance to prep for the Sounders over a full week will help Verde’s efforts to bounce back, and having Maxi Urruti available — as Wolff indicated he likely would be once again next weekend — will also help the team be its best self heading into what will functionally be a playoff match for the hosts. Whether Verde bring that mentality to Lumen Field could help determine which of the visions of the future swirling around in my head – and many of yours, I’m sure — will manifest.