The Curious Case of Marcelino Moreno

ATLANTA — Has there ever been a more polarizing Atlanta United player than Marcelino Moreno? He’s the Five Stripes version of a Rorschach test. A player that can be the best or worst player on the field depending on who you ask, when you ask them and which way the picture is tilted. 

He’s as reserved as they come. He’s rarely spoken to the media and it’s hard to remember if he ever actually has. The only thing we’ve really gathered about him off the field is that he and Machop Chol have developed a close relationship, one close enough to have claimed lockers next to each other at the Children’s Healthcare of Atlanta training ground. From a fan’s point of view, he’s a blank canvas who prefers to let his play on the field speak for itself. 

It’s just that what his play is saying is oftentimes incomprehensible. The soccer equivalent of a stranger walking up to you, screaming in your face, then politely handing you five dollars. It’s equal parts confusing, frightening and edifying. 

There’s a lot to take in with Moreno. But there are objective truths and subjective interpretations that can help us get to the heart of what he’s attempting to communicate on the field and whether or not it’s a net positive for Atlanta United now and going forward. 

We likely can’t settle the debate today. However, we can address several criticisms that often pop up in discussions around Marcie. Those criticisms may even help us address some of the core problems Atlanta United are facing.

Criticism #1: Marcelino Moreno struggles in transition moments and often heads headlong into a defense with no real plan

I do in fact concede that Marcelino Moreno struggles in transition moments and often heads headlong into a defense with no real plan and often makes the wrong decision or the right decision too slowly to be effective.

Criticism #2: Marcelino Moreno turns the ball over too much

I’m going to throw out some names: Bebelo Reynoso, Carles Gil, Lucho Acosta, Hany Mukhtar, Julian Gressel, Lucas Zelarayan, Alejandro Pozuelo, Sebastián Driussi, Darwin Quintero, Kai Wagner, Marcelino Moreno. 

What you have there in the abstract is a collection of the best playmakers in the league. What you actually have is an ordered list of the top 11 players in the league in total live ball turnovers per Second Spectrum. The best creators are on the ball often and willing to take risks. 

You might say he takes risks a little too often, but consider that he’s only barely the worst offender when it comes to turnovers on Atlanta United. And that there’s a reasonable argument to make that higher giveaway numbers from him and his teammates would indicate that Atlanta is on the way to fixing their issues with hesitancy in the final third. 

Luiz Araújo and Thiago Almada are generally tasked with similar creative responsibilities and, in fact, their per-game turnover numbers are similar to Moreno despite their total numbers trailing behind. Moreno leads the team with an average 7.27 live-ball turnovers per game. Araújo averages 7.23 and Almada 6.92. 

If you’re worried about where and how those turnovers are occurring and how detrimental they might be to the team defensively, Moreno, Araujo and Almada are similar there as well. Using Second Spectrum’s tracking data, we can see that Moreno’s turnovers occur 44.02 meters from goal, Araujo’s 43.48 meters from goal, and Almada’s 45.11. Moreno’s turnovers occur with an average of 6.54 teammates in front of him, Araujo 6.55 and Almada 7.00. 

Essentially, the numbers suggest that his turnovers aren’t occuring more often or in any areas or situations that are notably more impactful on the team. And his chance creation numbers are, you guessed it, extremely similar to Almada and Araújo. Almada creates 2.72 open play chances per 90, Moreno 2.61 and Araújo 2.56. 

Statistically, Moreno is producing and turning the ball over at a similar level to Atlanta’s highly-touted DPs while owning a smaller total budget charge. So why does he get killed for his giveaways more than other player on the team? Well, there’s no way to say it that isn’t blunt: It’s because, at times, he looks ridiculous. 

Subjectively, Moreno can resemble the classic computer game QWOP, where you struggle to make the various limbs of a sprinter move by hitting the Q, W, O, and P buttons on your keyboard. There are moments where he somehow seems to be perpetually mid face plant while carrying the ball forward. He’s not the paciest player and he’s far from the most graceful. Which makes this next stat look even worse. 

Objectively, he turns the ball over off the dribble more than any other player on the team. The amount of times he surrenders the ball via tackle per game is the sixth-largest amount in the league. Araújo is 18th in the league in that category and Almada is 35th. It’s not a massive gap, but it’s a gap that seems like a canyon when you compare the aesthetics of how he gives the ball away to quick and compact Thiago Almada and silky and powerful Luiz Araújo. 

That being said, it does make him the biggest culprit in Atlanta United’s worst attacking habit. 

I took the team’s total turnovers per game and turnovers from being dispossessed off the dribble per game and compared them to the rest of the league. The percentage of Atlanta’s turnovers per game that come via giveaway by dribble is the second-highest number in the league at 26.4%. Moreno is the most notable illustrator of Atlanta United’s deepest struggles in the final third.

Because one of Atlanta United’s most notable attributes in the post-2019 Eastern Conference Final era has been an all-consuming hesitancy to take risks off the ball. Especially in the final third. There are multiple reasons for that, but in short: A lack of players inherently willing to make runs coupled with a lack of trust that their teammates will reward those runs has led to a team that appears stagnant in possession moments in the final third, and lackluster at best in transition moments. Atlanta’s goalscoring output has far too often been a result of individual brilliance rather than the teamwide chemistry we see from the best teams across the league. 

Which leads us to…

Criticism #3: Marcelino Moreno doesn’t fit into this team

This is probably true. And maybe the crux of the entire conversation around Moreno. But it’s not because of turnovers, or because of output, or because of his struggles in transition. 

The turnovers alone aren’t bad. Atlanta United needs risk takers, especially in the final third.

Moreno’s output has consistently been one of the best on the team. He’s one goal contribution behind Araújo and Almada this season and he tied Ezequiel Barco for most total goal contributions last season. 

The transition thing is bad. He should really work on the transition thing. But it’s not why he doesn’t fit the present and future of the club. And not fitting in with that present or future doesn’t make him a bad player. Just a casualty of circumstances outside of his control. 

He doesn’t fit within the context of the team for exactly the reasons he shouldn’t be scolded by fans for his turnovers. The roster, as constructed, makes his turnovers a redundancy. Especially the amount of turnovers off of dribbles. Because it’s ok to take risks. But if your core creative trio is taking the same exact kinds of risks to challenge people off the dribble over and over again and no one is making the moves off the ball to make those dribbles matter, you're left with a team prone to dribbling itself into oblivion with an end product that doesn’t equal their hefty attacking payroll. 

Moreno, as we’ve said, isn’t pacy and often fails to move off the ball in a way that moves defenders around. He wants the ball at his feet. In some sense, he wants to be a heliocentric No. 10 the attack revolves around. But instead, he’s just one of three competing suns pulling the ball into their gravity and keeping it there. 

So, what should Atlanta do with a player that we can say is altogether talented, productive and redundant? In my opinion, they should try and find value for him. Major value at a position of need like central midfielder or center back. Moreno is a good player. The kind of player who could potentially be much more effective on a team where he consistently has players making runs in front of him. But he’s the odd man out in a trio where ⅔ are Designated Players. 

It’s unclear what Moreno’s budget charge actually is, but his guaranteed compensation is $460,000 per season. He’s not going to hurt his team’s budget on a DP or likely even a TAM level. That makes him one of the single-most viable trade pieces Atlanta have to course-correct on a season that seems to be slipping away. 

Because I’m of the opinion and will continue to be of the polarizing opinion that Marcelino Moreno is good. But there’s a chance he could end up being more valuable than that. 

Worst case scenario, you just end up keeping Marcelino Moreno. Plenty of teams would be more than happy with that.