Matchweek six of the NWSL closed out with the Houston Dash leading the entire league in terms of goal scored (11) and goals conceded (3). In the standings, it currently sits in second, trailing leaders the San Diego Wave by one solitary point.
Many will say that the Dash's sudden transformation from stingy workhorse to offensive powerhouse is in large part down to Friday night's 5-0 routing of the Orlando Pride, a historic night that saw Nichelle Prince net the first-ever hat trick in the Texas club's history.
Confidence is high in Houston. As the celebrations rolled on after the match, Sarah Lowdon spoke to the media about how her team has to be careful not to get too ahead of itself after one momentous performance. The Dash are on an impressive five-match unbeaten streak, with the team starting to click at both ends of the pitch.
Now it's time to get a little deeper and see what we learned from Friday's party at PNC.
Here's three takeaways from a legendary 5-0 win over the Orlando Pride:
Does not compute
Houston quite simply broke the soccer data machines on Friday night. According to Arielle Dror of Zelus Analytics and American Soccer Analysis, the probability of the Dash scoring five goals from the chances it created against Pride was less than 1%. Mathematically speaking, what happened was an extraordinary anomaly.
Probability of the Dash scoring 5 goals from those shots? Less than 1%. https://t.co/xlGoglBUrw pic.twitter.com/TamwGV58K8
— Arielle Dror (@arielle_dror) June 4, 2022
Advanced soccer data is still developing. There are disagreements, changes and discrepancies all the time. Regarding just Friday's match alone, Opta statistics gave the Dash an expected goals (XG) of 1.72, while American Soccer Analysis awarded them 1.32. Either way, Houston still managed to do something unlikely by converting five of its six shots on target into goals.
So did Houston get lucky? There's a few explanations that can also help us understand a night when everything went right for the Dash attack: The Dash might have gotten lucky. Perhaps the Pride's errors did not register in the statical breakdown. Or maybe Houston just executed immaculately. Well, I believe it's a combination of all three.
Prince's second goal, where she cut inside and curled the ball in via a deflection off Megan Montefusco, had an element of luck that went in favor of Houston.
The Dash's fourth goal, also scored by Prince, may have been the most technically exquisite finish of the day, but the Canadian found herself unmarked inside the Pride box. With that much time and space, a player of her quality can defy the odds.
Daly's header, which was Houston's second goal of the day, was a case for excellence — a perfectly timed combination play. Maria Sánchez's ridiculous cross from deep connects with Daly in stride, and despite being covered by two Pride players, she still finds the back of the net from 16 yards out with her head. Stats models will not favor goals of this quality and exception, but it was close to perfection.
World class ball from @Maria17_7, unreal finish from Rachel van Persie 😏@RachelDaly3 | #HoldItDown pic.twitter.com/egIcbFD3pF
— Houston Dash (@HoustonDash) June 4, 2022
So yes, the Dash made the most of their chances but there could also have been more goals. The two highest value chances Houston had during the whole match actually fell to Michelle Alozie (more on her later), who was a substitute in the 81st minute.
The Nigerian international beat the Pride offside trap and found herself one-on-one with Orlando's keeper Erin McLeod twice in the match's final moments. After swiping the first chance wide of goal with her left foot, she slotted the second opportunity home with a composed finish. Alozie finished the match with the highest individual XG of any player with 0.82 (via Opta).
Similarly intriguing was Pride forward Sydney Leroux's numbers. Her three shots on target were the joint most, with Prince and her individual XG of 0.67 (via Opta) was the second-highest of anyone except Alozie. Leroux had some great chances in this match, that forced some quality saves from Jane Campbell. On another day, those chances make the scoreline look more balanced.
Sometimes it's just your day. As I rewatched this match, it felt like nearly everything went right for Houston at both ends of the pitch. That will be hard to replicate moving forward. As we move through the season, these metrics tend to become more truthful as the sample size grows.
What a night for your first goal, @alozieee 🤩#HoldItDown pic.twitter.com/Bw1fmUjwan
— Houston Dash (@HoustonDash) June 4, 2022
European adventure
It was a farewell to remember for Dash captain Rachel Daly, who went out with a bang by notching a goal and an assist in her final NWSL match for potentially over two months. Although, as Daly told The Striker Texas afterwards, the fact that it was her last match for some time wasn’t on her mind.
“No, I take every game as it is,” said Daly. “Some people asked me today how I felt going out celebrating the 100th game, am I nervous. And you know what? I treat every game the same. It just feels like my first game.”
Daly now heads off back home to England to link up with her national team ahead of this summer’s UEFA European Championships. England will play three friendly matches in June, as it prepares to play the role of host and bring home its first women’s international soccer trophy in July.
First Daly has to cement her place in Sarina Wiegman’s 23-player England squad for the competition. Should she make the final roster and England advance all the way to the final of the tournament on July 31, then Daly will most likely miss eight NWSL matches in total. If the Lionesses exit Euro 2022 at an earlier stage, there is perhaps a chance Houston may see Daly return sooner.
Of course, considering the emotional and physical toll of an international soccer tournament, I would tentatively predict that Daly makes her NWSL return on August 12, when the Dash plays Racing Louisville at PNC Stadium.
“Obviously, I’m so excited to go away with England now and try and solidify my place in the 23 for the Euros but I couldn’t be more proud leaving on this note. This team is in a great spot at the minute. I’m so excited to see how much they can achieve while I am gone. Like I said, they are in great hands and yeah, I’m just excited to see where they can go.”
New options at center forward
Speaking of seeing “where they can go”, Friday’s match against the Pride gave us some clues about how the Dash will look to proceed without its captain.
Alozie made a noticeable impact in this match (as talked about above). Having previously only featured as a winger in a front three or as a full back, she was deployed as a center forward in a front two for the first time in her Dash tenure on Friday night.
"We were kind of trying to figure out where we're going to put her and I'm glad we put her in the nine because it actually it worked out," Lowdon said.
"She actually had a really good week of training. She's obviously come back from kind of a little knock that she had and I’m just really happy that she got her opportunity and she took it. I think you can see from the celebration just everybody's elated for it and for her. Obviously, it’s her first goal."
With the Pride trailing by four goals, having converted to a 3-5-2 in the second half and attempting to play as high and aggressively as possible; Alozie entered the match as the perfect foil for a flagging backline. As you can see in the frame below, Alozie is right on the shoulder of the last Orlando defender. When Shea Groom plays an inviting ball into the space behind the Pride defense, Alozie has plenty of room to capitalize.
Joelle Anderson, also in the frame above, was the other center forward Lowdon opted for in the second half against the Pride. The rookie was inches away from scoring the first goal of her professional career in the 90th minute but the effort was ruled offside. The former Pepperdine forward is another player, along with Alozie, who could be in line to soak up some of the minutes that Daly's departure opens up.
Michaela Abam, arguably the most traditional "nine" on the roster, is also a good candidate to come in and start for the Dash. The H-town local is probably the best back to goal player out of the forwards on the roster. How Lowdon intends to pick her "double nines" and the attacking midfielder behind them, in the 3-4-1-2 formation, will be fascinating to see for the next few months.
"I think we have grown so much throughout the season. In the beginning, we weren’t going forward as much and putting more numbers in the box as we are now. Every game we are growing in confidence and we know we can put numbers in the box and also get people in to score goals," said Prince about the evolving forward line.